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LightningLocks is here with their top player prop bet on Cincinnati wide receiver Tee Higgins for the Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl LVI. He breaks it down here.
ANALYSIS

Tee Higgins Super Bowl 2022 Prop Picks and Best Bets

Super Bowl Sunday, we made it. It feels like graduation day with all this anticipation for the biggest event of the year. We should have quite the show so let's get into one of our favorite props of the day.

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Tee Higgins Over 68.5 receiving (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

We are going to look at the Bengal's offense. This offense was seventh in the league in passing, getting 259 a game, and the Rams defense was 22nd and gave up almost 242 a game. So based on pure numbers, we have about 250 yards to go around. We will check out the three playoff games and see what we can develop.

Burrow has thrown for about 281 a game in the playoffs, so we see that happening again tonight. He has thrown to 5 receivers mainly, and one of them, his tight end, was knocked out, and we all know he is not 100%, but he isn't missing his only Super Bowl. This leaves four targets, and he is averaging 25 completions a game, so we break up 25 balls with four guys, and we get six catches by a receiver. Let's first look at the running back as Mixon is more of a receiving running back, and he is averaging 4 catches a game and about 35 yards a game based on the playoffs. That leaves the three receivers, and they are three great ones, but the Rams have a shutdown corner who has made it his mission to shut down Ja'Marr Chase, the Bengals star. Honestly, Chase has had some massive games and some games he didn't even show up on, but he is on pace for about seven catches and 90 yards. We feel that with Ramsey that those numbers should decline tonight. Last, we have Tyler Boyd, who hasn't done much in the playoffs averaging 3.3 catches and 20 yards a game.

This leaves us with the guy we are trusting. He won and played in a title game; Tee Higgins has been in the big and the spotlight. He is averaging about five catches and 70 yards, which he is projected to get today, but we feel he will be the leading receiver with Chase shut down. If we look at the playoffs, we see he is averaging 70 yards, but if we take away the Raiders game when he was shut down and look at his last two games, he has been amazing with 7-96, 6-103 because teams are all over Chase so this is making Higgins the number one option for Burrow.

Higgins had only seven fewer catches in the regular season than Chase, so he is more of a 1A than a number two. Also, let's not forget Higgins was there first and has a year in his pocket with Burrow, and we think he is trusting and looking for him a lot more now. In the Raiders game, Chase had 9-116. He went off why they didn't need Higgins, but in the last two games, Higgins has almost exact numbers and targets, and remember we only need 69 yards to win, which is 12 less than Chase needs to win his.

With the way Chase will be guarded in the Super Bowl, we feel Tee Higgins will have the bigger game, and we are trusting him to get 69 yards or more and win his receiving prop for all of us since he has been averaging almost 100 the last two games. Trust the man who has been in the big game before and has beaten this number 9 times this year. Tee Higgins over 68.5 receiving yards available at FanFuel. Good Luck, and let's see that 44-yard bomb from Burrow to Higgins again this week early, and we can relax and enjoy the W early.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Line Movement

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