2022 NFL Betting Picks: Can We Count on Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady?
2022 NFL Betting Picks: Can We Count on Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady?
There are tons of questions surrounding player performance and sports betting when each NFL pre-season rolls around. These questions lead to few constants, but there are still some predictable outcomes we can take advantage of. Specifically, the stellar play of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
Rodgers turns 39 years old in December and Brady turns 45 years old this week, but as wild as it sounds, that shouldn't cause a lack of trust in the two hall-of-fame passers. Rodgers, a 4-time MVP, and Brady, a 3-time MVP, are two of the greatest decision makers to ever step foot on a football field. And, sportsbooks are hanging some lofty lines on their interception totals this season. Let's jump into the NFL picks!
2022 NFL Prediction - Aaron Rodgers Prop
Aaron Rodgers Under 7.5 Interceptions (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)
*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*
Aaron Rodgers has led the NFL in interception rate in four consecutive seasons. He's flourished since Matt LaFleur's arrival, posting a 39-9 win/loss record over the last three seasons. And, he's the NFL's reigning back-to-back MVP. To put it simply, Aaron hasn't shown any signs of slowing down.
Rodgers has thrown an interception on just 0.7% of his pass attempts since 2018. That's twice as good a rate as any full-time starter during this timeframe.
The Green Bay signal-caller has played 7 full 16-game seasons since 2014, and he has been quite successful at remaining under this interception line. Here are his INT totals over the last eight years:
- 2014: 5 INT in 16 games
- 2015: 8 INT in 16 games
- 2016: 7 INT in 16 games
- 2017: 6 INT in 7 games
- 2018: 2 INT in 16 games
- 2019: 4 INT in 16 games
- 2020: 5 INT in 16 games
- 2021: 4 INT in 16 games
That's an average of just 5.9 picks per 17 games since Rodgers' age-30 campaign. Now, account for Green Bay losing Davante Adams. It's quite possible that the Pack decide to lean on their backfield tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon even more in 2022, which could limit Rodgers' passing volume even further.
Additionally, there's always the chance of injury for any player. If Rodgers misses time at any point in the season, that can only help our case with the season-long under.
2022 NFL Prediction - Tom Brady Prop
Tom Brady Under 12.5 Interceptions (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)
*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*
Another excellent spot with history on our side. Brady has thrown exactly 12 interceptions in each of his two seasons with Tampa Bay. Sure, he's a higher volume passer in Tampa than he was in New England, but his interception rate has remained steady. He's only turned it over on 1.8% of his pass attempts since arriving in Tampa, equivalent to his 1.8% INT rate in 20 years as a Patriot.
Brady's never been turnover prone. He's remained under 12.5 interceptions in 12 consecutive seasons. And, he's thrown fewer than 13 INTs in 16 of his 20 career years as a starter. He's averaged just 9.7 interceptions per 17 games since 2010, nearly a 200-game sample size.
If Brady leads the league in pass attempts again, I still have him penciled in for just 11 to 12 interceptions. I like the GOAT's chances of having a 12-INT-or-less season for the 13th year in a row.
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