Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks: Will Gabriel Davis Start the Season Strong?
Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop: Will Gabriel Davis Start the Season Strong?
We're getting super close to the NFL's opening night showdown in Los Angeles, and that means player props are available! Every major sportsbook has released a large list of props to attack for Thursday's game, and I'm here to take advantage of a fantastic value.
Gabe Davis is heading into his third NFL season with the Buffalo Bills, and he's in a prime position to have a tremendous 2022 campaign. That all begins with him having a strong Week 1 showing, so let's jump into the plays!
Rams vs Bills Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: Thursday, September 8
Time: 8:20 pm ET
Where to Watch: NBC
Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks
Gabriel Davis Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)
There is a lot to like about Gabe Davis in 2022. And the buzz out of Bills' training camp fully supports the narrative that the 23-year-old could be in for a massive breakout year. Over the last two weeks, insider reports have stated that Davis could play as many snaps as Stefon Diggs (or more) this season and that some view him as a not-so-distant second option to Diggs.
One of the primary contributing factors to a potentially increased role for Gabe Dave is the departure of Emmanuel Sanders. The two wideouts had to split many of their snaps in 2021, but we were fortunate enough to see a three-game Gabe Davis sample size without Sanders. He logged snap shares of 90%, 87%, and 91% in those three contests. So, it's a very, very real possibility we see this type of involvement all season for Davis.
More time on the field for the talented receiver means more targets, too. Davis played at least 50% of Buffalo's snaps in eight games last season. Here were his per-game numbers in those contests:
- 6.6 targets, 3.9 receptions, 74.3 yards
In his anticipated new role, Davis could very well cannibalize all of Emmanuel Sanders' production from 2021 (in addition to his own). If we look at combined stats from these two playing opposite Diggs last season, that gets us to 135 targets, 77 receptions, 1175 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. That's easily within the realm of possibility for Davis this season, and that would boil down to 69.1 yards per game. He's in a great position to put up 60+ on Thursday night.
Gabriel Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155) (Bet $100 to win $155)
Let's take a look back at that eight-game sample size where Gabe Dave played more than half of Buffalo's offensive plays last season. He scored in five of those eight games, posting nine total touchdowns. That's more than one per game for all my math people out there.
Davis is an absolute stud, especially when Buffalo enters the red zone. Per a CBS graphic, Davis was the NFL's most efficient receiver last season, as 82.9% of his receptions went for either first downs or touchdowns in 2021. That figure led the league.
And, let's acknowledge his target share increase in the red zone, too. Davis held a terribly low 10.9% target share in 2021. However, he accounted for 16.5% of Buffalo's red zone looks last season. Josh Allen clearly trusts Davis as a go-to option, and that should continue in 2022. At +155, it's too hard to pass up his chances to open the season with an endzone trip.
Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.