Lions vs Commanders Prediction, Player Props, and Odds: Expect Big Games from Amon-Ra St. Brown, Curtis Samuel
Week 2 features a matchup in Detroit between the Lions and the Commanders. The Lions will be looking to avoid dropping two straight home games to open the season, while the Commanders will be seeking their first 2-0 start since 2011. Both teams demonstrated signs of promise last Sunday, but both also have their fair share of things to clean up.
This game has the second-highest projected points total of the Sunday NFL slate — the over/under is currently set at 48.5. Using that baseline, I'm looking at two receivers who are well-positioned to replicate their strong Week 1 performances. Here are my prop picks for the Week 2 matchup between the Lions and the Commanders.
Lions vs Commanders Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Sunday, September 18
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Where to Watch: FOX
Lions vs Commanders Odds
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Predictions
Amon-Ra St. Brown
At the end of last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown exploded onto the scene as a fourth-round rookie. From weeks 13-18, St. Brown averaged 11.2 targets per game, 8.5 receptions per game, and 93.3 yards per game. It was an impressive stretch of play, but many dismissed it as a product of 'vacated targets'. The argument was that St. Brown benefitted from a lack of competition for targets, with D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson both missing significant time down the stretch.
However, in Week 1, Amon-Ra took the first step towards refuting that narrative by posting a solid performance as part of a fully healthy group of pass catchers. He totaled 64 receiving yards — a bit down from his scorching pace at the end of the 2021 season — but he also received 12 targets. That target count is key — receivers who consistently earn high-end numbers of targets tend to be quite good. At this point, I'm inclined to believe that St. Brown's 2021 production had more to do with his talent than his situation.
Therefore, I think that this matchup with Washington will offer a nice opportunity for St. Brown to continue showcasing his abilities. The Commanders' secondary is underwhelming from a talent perspective, which was evident in Week 1. The unit allowed Christian Kirk to log 117 receiving yards on six catches and Zay Jones to turn in a solid, 65-yard receiving day. Amon-Ra St. Brown is far and away the Lions' best (healthy) receiver, a fact that the current yard's total is not adequately represented. I'd bet the over up to around 65.5 receiving yards.
In Week 1, Curtis Samuel was one of the main reasons that the Commanders ended up victorious against the Jaguars. Samuel led Washington in targets with 11, racking up eight catches for 55 receiving yards and a score. He was also utilized on the ground, ending the game with four carries for 17 rushing yards. If he can maintain this level of production, he will be a key component of the Commanders' offense throughout the season.
The question, naturally, is whether or not Samuel can sustain this type of elevated role. Last season, injuries limited him to just parts of five games; he caught just six passes in 2021. Samuel may not average 11 targets a game this year, but he will be a major factor in this offense for as long as he can stay healthy. As a player who excels as a safety valve in the short and intermediate range, he fills a role in the passing offense that Rivera and his staff have sought to address since they took over. I think that this is the lowest total for receiving yards that Samuel will see for the rest of the season — take advantage.
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Picks
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)
- Curtis Samuel Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)
Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.