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The Green Bay Packers will host the Chicago Bears on Sunday night. NFL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi provides his best prop pick for this NFC North matchup.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction, Player Prop Pick: Should We Trust Aaron Jones?

Green Bay's offense underperformed in Week 1, scoring a lone touchdown en route to a 23-7 loss against Minnesota. The loss of Davante Adams was immediately apparent, with receivers failing to gain separation and dropping passes throughout the game. The Packers will look to get back to .500 against their biggest rival on Sunday night.

That rival, the Chicago Bears, shocked much of the football world by opening the season with a victory against the 49ers. It's worth noting, however, that the win came on a field that was effectively turned into a pond by heavy rain. As a result, I do not see a way to draw any meaningful conclusions from the game — the Bears' defense is likely a lot worse than the 10 points that they allowed might indicate.

When dealing with prop projections, it's important to keep the following factors, among others, in mind: quality of opposition, talent, game script, and (projected) player usage. I'll touch on those below, in order, as I make the case for my top prop pick this week.

Packers vs. Bears Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: September 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:20 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: NBC

Packers vs. Bears Odds

Spread: Packers -10 (-110)

Total: Over 41.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Packers (-435)

Click here for Packers vs. Bears odds

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Prediction

Aaron Jones Over 53.5 Rushing Yards

This offseason alone, the Bears parted ways with All-Pro edge rusher Khalil Mack, nose tackle Eddie Goldman, and two starting defensive tackles in Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols. Roquan Smith, one of the league's best interior linebackers, remains in Chicago. After him and pass rusher Robert Quinn, though, I'm not sure there's a single player of note in the Bears' front seven. For the purpose of judging this unit's ability, any positives that one could draw from the game against San Francisco should be disregarded, given that the game was played in a virtual monsoon. This season, I expect teams to run the ball against Chicago with more ease than in any recent year, and that should start with the Packers.

Over the last few seasons, Aaron Jones has proven himself to be one of the better running backs in the entire NFL. My player model has Jones graded as the 10th-best running back in the league, and the numbers back this ranking up. Over the course of his career, the two-time 1000-yard rusher has averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which demonstrates his efficiency as a runner. In any given game, if Jones receives a solid number of carries, he tends to turn them into a lot of yards.

The game script should favor the two Green Bay running backs, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, in this spot. The Packers are currently 10-point favorites, meaning that they are likely to be leading as the game wears on. On top of that, both starting tackles for the Packers, Elgton Jenkins, and David Bakhtiari, may play this week after missing the Week 1 contest against the Vikings. So, not only will Green Bay probably be in a position where they will lean heavily on the run-to-bleed clock, but they may feel particularly comfortable doing so if one or both of their starting tackles can go.

Finally, we've received explicit, verbal confirmation from quarterback Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur that getting the ball to Aaron Jones needs to be a priority. After Jones received just eight touches (five carries and three catches) in Week 1, Rodgers and LaFleur expressed their desire to get him more involved moving forward. This does not come as a surprise — Jones turned those eight touches into 76 yards from scrimmage — but it's still noteworthy that they made a point to say it. Now, what coaches say and what they don't always align. In this case, though, I'm inclined to believe that the smoke indicates fire. All signs point to Jones' rushing yards total being underpriced — it's worth a bet up to around 59.5 yards.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Best Player Prop Pick

Pick: Aaron Jones Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

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Article Author


Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.


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