Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Player Prop Picks, Odds: Will Pat Freiermuth Produce?
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Player Prop Picks, Odds: Will Pat Freiermuth Produce?
The NFL season continues to move along, as we enter the third week of the 2022 regular season. This week's edition of Thursday Night Football is quickly approaching with the Pittsburgh Steelers set to take on the Cleveland Browns.
Although this contest projects to be a low-scoring AFC North battle, we have some value on a Pittsburgh Steelers player prop. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is taking on a large role in Pittsburgh's offense in his second season and is in a great spot to produce on Thursday night.
Browns vs. Steelers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: Thursday, September 22
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Amazon Prime
Browns vs. Steelers Odds
- Spread: Browns -4.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 38.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Browns (-200)
Click Here for Browns vs Steelers Odds
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Props
Pat Freiermuth Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-114) (Bet $114 to win $100)
*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*
This line has no business being this low. FanDuel is hanging an awesome number for us here at just 32.5 yards for one of Mitchell Trubisky's favorite targets.
Pat Freiermuth's receiving line is listed a few yards higher at other sportsbooks, which is perfectly fine. This is playable all the way up to 37.5, but it's impossible to pass up at just 32.5.
Freiermuth ran 29 routes in Week 1 and 27 routes in Week 2, good for a route run on just under 80% of Trubisky's dropbacks. This is encouraging usage for a young tight end and goes hand in hand with an increased snap share, too.
The Penn State product played 89% of Pittsburgh's snaps in Week 1 and 81% last week. This increased usage comes after not reaching the 80% mark a single time in his rookie season. But, dating back to last season, Freiermuth has now logged 12 games where he's played at least 60% of the team's offensive snaps. And, the results are promising.
Freiermuth has reached the over on this line in 7 of these 12 games, despite misses at 31 yards and 32 yards last season. Overall, he's averaging 6.3 targets, 4.5 receptions, and 40.2 yards per game in these 12 contests. And, it seems like Trubisky likes throwing his way even more than Ben Roethlisberger did last year. His 24.3% target share ranks him third among all tight ends through two weeks and makes this line a screaming value at just 32.5.
Pat Freiermuth Any Time Touchdown (+350) (Bet $100 to win $350)
*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*
FanDuel isn't just giving us one gift. They're giving us two!
Freiermuth has quickly become the focal point of Pittsburgh's red zone offense. Although Trubisky has only attempted a small sample of 4 red zone passes through two games, 2 of them have gone Pat Freiermuth's way. And, one of them was for a touchdown last week.
Pat was quite involved in scoring range as a rookie, too. He had just a 13% target share in Pittsburgh's offense in 2021. But, in the red zone, he accounted for 23% of the team's targets. This resulted in 7 receiving touchdowns, tied for the 5th most by a rookie tight end in NFL history.
Furthermore, one of these scores came against the Cleveland Browns last season. And, he's now scored in 5 of 8 games when seeing at least 70% of the offensive snaps. Trubisky found tight ends Trey Burton and Jimmy Graham (when he was completely washed up) for plenty of touchdowns back in Chicago. Freiermuth is a far more dangerous weapon than either of those guys and already seems to be Mitch's favorite end zone target.
At +350, this one's impossible to pass on.