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In a rematch of the NFC Championship Game from two seasons ago, the Green Bay Packers will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. NFL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi is eyeing two prop bets for the matchup.
ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction, Player Prop Picks: Should We Trust Leonard Fournette?

From a spread-betting perspective, there might not be more of a 'stay-away game' on the Week 3 slate than the Packers versus the Buccaneers. Both teams will be missing multiple starters, many of whom are among the best players on their respective squads. Tampa Bay will be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Akiem Hicks, Donovan Smith, and probably more; the Packers will be missing Sammy Watkins and possibly David Bakhtiari, Christian Watson, and Randall Cobb. When taking Rodgers' history of struggles in Florida and Brady's disjointed start to the year into account, this is not a spread I want to touch, on either side.

However, the laundry list of injuries does open up some opportunities on which specific players should be able to capitalize. Based on how the offense-defense matchup is shaping up between Tampa's offense and Green Bay's defense, there is one player who projects for a massive workload. Here are my two prop picks for this game, both of which center around Tampa Bay's lead running back.

Buccaneers vs. Packers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Sunday, September 25
  • Time: 4:25 PM ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

Click Here for Buccaneers vs. Packers Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction

Ever since Tom Brady signed with the Buccaneers, Leonard Fournette's passing game usage has skyrocketed. Last season, Fournette averaged 4.9 receptions and 32.4 receiving yards per game. Brady has always loved checking down to his backs, a trend that dates back to his earlier seasons in New England. Fournette, who has averaged 7.1 yards per reception over the course of his career, has proved to be a perfect match.

This game could provide a fantastic opportunity for Fournette to explode in the passing game, albeit from accumulation, not big plays. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing Sunday's game, the Buccaneers will struggle to stretch the field, especially against the Packers' top-notch secondary. Most of their offensive production is likely to come from a dink-and-dunk style, much of which should center around the running backs. Fournette is the workhorse running back in Tampa's offense, so he's first in line to benefit from this offensive approach, especially through the air.

Given that the line on the game is currently approaching a pick, there isn't much certainty around the game script. It's possible that Green Bay will be leading, in which case Fournette is likely to see his usage favor the passing game as opposed to the running game. That is the optimal outcome for both of these props — we want Tampa Bay to be trailing. If they are holding a lead, though, I still think that both props will have a solid chance to hit. The Bucs will continue attempting to put points on the board regardless of the score, and much of that will necessarily stem from Fournette. He is their best offensive weapon, and he will need to be used as such if the Buccaneers want to win this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks

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Article Author

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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