Week 3 NFL Player Props: Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
Today's Sunday slate blesses us with multiple great matchups. I’m going to be targeting three receivers to get the job done. While it's Sunday morning, and there has been some line movement over the course of the week, I still think there is value on the slate. I’ll be playing each of these guys for half a unit, let's crush this slate.
NFL Player Prop Predictions
Rashod Bateman Longest reception o20.5 -110 (Bet $110 to Win $100)
Rashod Bateman hasn't quite seen the snap share we had hoped for so far, but he's still producing. Bateman has shown great flashes of speed already, and the Patriots are known to defensively scheme out the opponent's best player. With fewer opportunities for Mark Andrews in this one, I expect Bateman to get multiple downfield looks. Bateman is currently 3rd in yards per route run with an average depth of target of 16.1. He’s getting very good downfield usage, and I expect that to continue today. Additionally, I love these longest receptions with mobile quarterbacks, broken/improvised plays allow for chaos downfield giving these guys a couple extra opportunities.
Gabe Davis Longest Reception o22.5 -115 (Bet $115 to Win $100)
Speaking of downfield receivers with mobile quarterbacks, I really like Gabe Davis this week. To be honest, I love both Davis and Diggs here, but the number on Davis just feels way too low. These two guys opened up less than 10 yards apart on opening day, and now that line has moved 25 yards apart -- overreaction! Davis already hit this in the one game he played this season, recording a 16 ADOT as well. The biggest thing I’m really worried about here is that ankle, but if he’s suiting up, I trust him to play. Miami are one of the more heavy man-to-man coverage teams, Davis sees a 8% increase in targets per route run against man -- really liking this matchup.
Treylon Burks o41.5 Receiving Yards -110 (Bet $110 to Win $100)
While I played his longest reception last week at 15, we’ve seen that increase about 5 points so I’m pivoting to yards here. Burks is tough, because he registers top 5 in the NFL in yards per route run and targets per route run, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s just not playing many snaps. Despite that, he’s produced hitting this number in both games, going for 47 and 55 yards. Last week, we saw him see an increase in snaps, but it's not reflected in the stat sheet considering this team gave up in the 3rd quarter. Kyle Phillips is also out this week, Burks played 70+ % of his snaps out of the slot in college, yet only 20% so far, I’m hoping this injury unlocks some more opportunities for Burks.
Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community.