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WeBeatTheSpread breaks down the top TNF picks for Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts. Come find out his NFL TNF bets with Broncos vs. Colts predictions, pick, and odds.
ANALYSIS

Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Pick: TNF Prediction and Odds

By now, if you are a weekly NFL bettor, you have already caught on to the primetime under-trend, and actually unders as a whole. The under is an astonishing 38-26 (60%) through four weeks. Unders were 30-18 (62.5%) before the start of last week. Then, the under went 8-8 in week four, so maybe the trend is finally starting to regress. Nonetheless, primetime unders have still been hot to open the season. In 13 primetime games this season, the under is 9-4. Will the trend continue tonight in Denver?

Broncos vs. Colts Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Thursday, October 6
  • Time: 8:15 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: Prime Video

Broncos vs. Colts Odds

Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction

The biggest storyline of this game is the running back injuries. The Colts will be without star Jonathan Taylor, while the Broncos will be without their primary running back, Javonte Williams. What does this mean for the game script on each side? Lots of passing, in my eyes, especially on the Colts' side. The Broncos blitz at a top-five rate in the NFL, and without Jonathan Taylor, it will be hard for Matt Ryan and co. to establish anything on the ground. Instead, I think offensive coordinator Marcus Brady will have a pass-heavy game script to get ahead of the blitz, getting Hines and Cox involved in the short passing game. The Broncos are a zone defensive team, which means those short routes underneath will be open for Ryan, especially when the Broncos bring the blitz.

On the Bronco's side, Russell Wilson may finally be ready for an offensive breakout, although it may feel forced at this point. The loss of Williams will surely make Wilson lean on his long ball, with Melvin Gordon treating his carries like a game of hot potato. Gordon's fumbling issue will most likely make offensive coordinator Justin Outten gun-shy with giving Gordon too many carries tonight, which will lead to a pass-heavy game script for Wilson. Wilson has also been getting some tough luck in the red zone. The Broncos rank 32nd in red-zone scoring this season, only scoring on 30% of trips. That is sure to regress to the mean, and this may be the game for it to start.

The Colts rank 30th in defensive in opponents' red-zone scoring, allowing touchdowns on 80% of opponents' trips inside the 20. The Broncos are only scoring 1.5 touchdowns per game despite ranking 16th in yards per play, right around the middle of the league. This offense isn't a powerhouse, but they are also not a bottom-five offense. I expect the red zone luck to turn around, and this Colt's defense is the team to do it against.

I don't expect this game to be a barn-burner, but with the public interest favoring the under and a 9-4 primetime under record, I'm willing to take a low number in this spot. Injured running backs and blitz-heavy defenses will force a lot of throws, which either results in more yards or dropped passes that stop the clock. This is also a short week, which favors the offenses since the defenses have less time to prepare for the opposing offense. There could also be some turnovers in this game, considering Melvin Gordon forgot how to use his hands, and Matt Ryan is averaging more than one interception per game. I'm willing to take the over on a total that feels just a bit too low for this matchup.

Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick

Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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