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Week 5 in the NFL features an AFC South battle when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Houston Texans. Handicapper and player prop expert Gray Gutfreund gives us his best player prop bet for this clash.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Prediction, Player Prop Pick: Will James Robinson Run Wild?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the league's best surprise stories of 2022. Although they're only 2-2, their wins over the Colts and Chargers have been incredibly impressive. After a close loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week, the Jags are looking to bounce back at home against the Houston Texans.

Jacksonville is favored by 7 points this week, which bodes quite well for lead running back James Robinson. He's been integral to the team's offensive success thus far, and should heavily factor into the offense in Week 5. It won't be a surprise if James Robinson runs wild against the Texans this Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, October 9
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS

Click Here for Jaguars vs. Texans Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Player Prop

James Robinson Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

*Odds Available at BetMGM*

James Robinson has cashed this over in 3 of 4 games to open the season. He's averaged 14.8 rushing attempts and 64.8 rushing yards per game in the season's opening month. And, Robinson gets a cakewalk of a matchup against Houston's weak run defense to capitalize even further.

Here's what Houston has conceded to opposing lead running backs so far:

  • Week 1: Jonathan Taylor - 31 carries, 161 yards
  • Week 2: Javonte Williams - 15 carries, 75 yards
  • Week 3: Khalil Herbert - 20 carries, 157 yards
  • Week 4: Austin Ekeler - 13 carries, 60 yards

The Texans have allowed 172.0 rushing yards per game, good for 2nd most in the NFL. And, they've given up 5.1 yards per carry, good for 3rd most in the NFL. This is right in line with their performance in 2021, where the team ranked 2nd-worst in YPG allowed and 5th-worst in YPC allowed.

18 running backs have seen at least 13 carries against Houston since the start of the 2021 season. 15 of them gained at least 60 yards on the ground. This includes a game where Robinson ran 18 times for 75 yards. As long as the Jags keep a lead or keep this game close, a repeat performance should be in the cards for J-Rob.

Robinson has played in 16 career games where the Jags either won or lost by one score. The Jacksonville RB ran for at least 62 yards in 13 of these 16 contests. With the Jags favored by a touchdown, this profiles as the perfect bounce-back spot for J-Rob.

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Article Author


Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.


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