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NFL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi provides his top prop bets for Sunday's game between the Buccaneers and the Falcons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Player Prop Picks: Should We Fade Tyler Allgeier?

In Week 4, the Falcons managed to secure a 23-20 win over the Browns, while the Buccaneers were throttled on Sunday night by the Chiefs, 41-31. This Sunday, the Bucs will be looking to get back on track when they host the Falcons. It will be the first meeting of the year between the two NFC South rivals. Both teams need a win here — the victor will grab sole possession of first place in the division.

Despite the fact that both the Bucs and the Falcons are 2-2, this game does not project to be a tight contest. Due to the respective strength of these teams' rosters and an ever-growing Atlanta injury report, Tampa Bay is now favored by 10 points. That spread allows us to get a sense of the most likely way for the game to play out — with the Bucs holding a lead. Using that as our baseline, here are the two prop bets that I think hold value for this Week 5 matchup.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: October 9, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

Click here for the Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks

Tyler Allgeier Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-114) (Bet $114 to win $100)

Allgeier logged a promising performance in Week 4, posting 84 rushing yards on 10 carries (8.4 YPC). Now, with starting running back Cordarrelle Patterson on IR, Allgeier is poised to handle the bulk of the carries in the Falcons' backfield. So, how should we project his usage in Week 5?

The first thing to look at is how the Falcons are likely to assign plays, given the probable game script. As stated before, the Bucs will be leading for a large portion of this game, barring a shocking collapse from the start. The only game this season where the Falcons were trailing for an extended period was in Week 2 against the Rams. With the Falcons playing from behind, Patterson, who was then the starting RB, only managed 41 rushing yards on 10 carries. This does not bode well for Allgeier, who is an inferior running back likely to see a comparable workload.

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Even more concerning than the unfavorable game script is the fact that Tampa Bay has an elite defensive front. Their defense ranks fourth in DVOA, and that is, in large part, because of their front seven. Lavonte David is among the best linebackers in the league against the run, and Devin White is a solid complementary starter. Vita Vea might be the top pure-nose tackle in the NFL — he is an absolute force in the run game. Overall, this is an exceedingly poor matchup for the Falcons' run game, and I do not like Allgeier's outlook.

Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown (+275) (Bet $100 to win $275)

Rachaad White is a running back whose usage shift is worthy of consideration. As a rookie, he did not see much of the field in the first three weeks. However, after Tampa's coaching staff stated that they'd like to decrease Fournette's workload, White responded with a strong Week 4, touching the ball eight times (receiving and rushing) for 56 yards and a touchdown. Fournette still received the majority of touches out of the Tampa Bay backfield, but the usage split was more balanced, indicating that White may maintain relevance moving forward.

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Given that the Falcons' defense is among the worst in the NFL, this Buccaneers' offense should be able to put up a high-point total on Sunday. If they are able to build a significant lead, expect White to siphon more and more touches away from Fournette once the game is in hand. This will provide White with the opportunity to score, which is what we're looking for. Of course, this bet isn't a lock — no bet is — but I think that there's a solid value at +275.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks

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Article Author


Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.


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