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Week 5 in the NFL wraps up with an AFC West clash as the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Las Vegas Raiders to Arrowhead Stadium. Handicapper LightningLockz is here with his best NFL bet for this Monday Night Football matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Pick: MNF Prediction and Odds

Chiefs vs. Raiders Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: Monday, October 10
  • Time: 8:15 PM ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds

  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-335); Raiders (+285)
  • Spread: Chiefs -7 (-110); Raiders +7 (-110)
  • Total: Over/Under 52 (-110)

Click Here for Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds

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Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction

Well, maybe we will have some offense tonight as the last few TV games haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard with 12 and 19 being enough to win games on Thursday and Sunday nights. Tonight we have an old AFC West battle where two teams who hate each other go at it. Clearly, this isn't the game of the year we all want to see next week with the Bills and Chiefs rematch from last year in Arrowhead. Will the Chiefs be looking ahead? Will the Raiders live up to preseason expectations? Another loss and 1-4 will be hard to come back from. Tonight we look at a prop of a guy who nobody knew a few weeks ago. 

Who is Isiah Pacheco? He wasn't that good at Rutgers but it could be the system or the fact that Rutgers isn't a good football school. The one thing we can see is Pacheco did average a good amount of yards per carry in college even though it did go down pretty much every year; as he started at 4.96 as a freshman and ended at 3.86. This team did get worse every year and that's probably why he lasted until the 7th round because if they were redrafting he probably would be gone by the 3rd round.

Last week against Tampa it just looked like the Chiefs had made up their mind and wanted him to be the starter as he made Clyde Edwards-Helaire run tougher routes but this guy Pacheco was running strongly against one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL. Tonight he is not going against the best run defense but the Raiders have a decent run defense (only 103 a game ) but his prop is so low we really need this guy to get 5 carries and we should win it. Pacheco has been hit or miss this year but we feel he is a hit because it makes no sense to leave this guy off the field.

The first thing that matters tonight is Pacheco hasn't caught a ball all year so he is not a threat at getting any receiving yards. This guy is all about rushing yards and we love how he runs with a passion and finishes strong. He has 28 rushes for 140 yards rushing averaging 5 a game as he did as a freshman in college. Tonight's over-under at FanDuel is 20.5 -125 on the over. You may be wondering why so low, as we mentioned he is hit or miss as he had two games where he didn't show up or get the ball (3 carries for 9 yards and 2 carries for 6 yards) but when he does get the ball he goes off as he had 62 and 63 yards in the other two games.

His competition is Clyde Edwards-Helaire who gets paid more but is a better receiver and we look at the attempts he has had 7-8-7-19. So other than Tampa Bay he really hasn't been used that much either. KC is getting 117 yards a game rushing and of course, scoring 32+ a game. This team is all about getting into the end zone. They do have 6 guys who have had a carry or two and the only other competition is Jerick McKinnon who has fewer carries and much fewer yards per carry than either of these two guys.

We feel Pacheco is the #2 running back sort of like Chubb and Hunt in Cleveland and if KC is smart they are going to let this guy get a lot of carries if he keeps getting 5 yards and running like he has been this season. Trust us, one more big game and you won't see his prop this low ever again because the market will catch up. 

We recommend an over 20.5 -125 on Isiah Pacheco available at FanDuel tonight and honestly, we won't be surprised if he busts one for 21 yards and wins this on one carry but as long as he gets four carries we should win this prop. Hopefully, KC is smart and lets him get 11-12 carries as he has shown this team that he may be the steal of the 7th round. Take the over on Pacheco and let's enjoy this game and another winner as you will remember his name for next week and the rest of the year.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick

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