Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction: Is Josh Jacobs Undervalued on Monday Night Football?

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction: Is Josh Jacobs Undervalued on Monday Night Football?

Chiefs vs. Raiders Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Monday, October 10
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Click Here for Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds

Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction

The last game of week five is here as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders finally got in the win column last week, improving to 1-3 with a 32-23 win over the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Chiefs moved to 3-1 after stomping Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in a 41-31 that was never close. The Chiefs are expected to win this one easily, as they are currently listed as 7.5-point favorites. In my research of this matchup, I was able to spot a prop that is undervalued for tonight. Let's break it down.

Derek Carr and the Raider's offense came into this season with high expectations. The addition of top-five wideout Davante Adams to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, along with a new offensive coordinator, was a new hope for Raiders fans.

Well, through four games, they sit at 1-3, but a lot of that can be attributed to some tough luck. According to luck rankings, the Raiders have been the second unluckiest team in the NFL, and all three of their losses have come by one possession. However, the offense seems to be finding its footing and had their highest scoring game against the Broncos last week, scoring 32 points. A large part of that success started with running back Josh Jacobs.

Josh Jacobs is coming off the best game of his career, racking up a career-high 144 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards to couple it. It was his first time scoring two touchdowns since week one last season against the Ravens.

The Raiders know they must pass the ball in this game to keep it close and have a shot at the upset. That starts with Davante Adams and Darren Waller, but it also includes Josh Jacobs. The Chief's defensive line has been an improved unit, ranking first in rushing yards allowed per game at 65.8. Most teams are forced into passing scripts when facing the Chiefs, but that may not necessarily be a bad thing when you have a talented receiving core like the Raiders. Part of that passing attack includes Josh Jacobs, who has seen an increased usage through the air.

When Jacobs entered the league, he was not a receiving back, and he only had 166 receiving yards his entire rookie season. However, that has started to change, and Jacobs receiving yards total has increased every season he has been in the league. Through four games, he is already well over halfway above his combined receiving yards in his entire rookie season. Over the first two games, the Raiders didn't use him much in the passing game, but they were still trying to find their identity as an offense with Davante Adams now out wide. Over the last two weeks, though, Jacobs has seen an increase in his targets, getting five targets against the Titans for five receptions and 31 yards and six targets last week against the Broncos for five receptions and 31 more yards. I expect his usage in the passing game to be there again against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs currently allow more receiving yards than any other team to running backs. Their ten receptions and 69.2 receiving yards allowed to running backs per game are easily the most among any other NFL team. The next closest in receptions is the Ravens with 7.2, and the next closest in yards is the Dolphins with 56. Opposing running backs have had the following games this season against the Chiefs:

Week 1 (Cardinals):

• Eno Benjamin - 3 Receptions, 33 Yards
• James Conner - 5 Receptions, 29 Yards

Week 2 (Chargers):

• Austin Ekeler - 9 Receptions, 55 Yards

Week 3 (Colts):

• Nyheim Hines - 5 Receptions, 23 Yards
• Jonathan Taylor - 3 Receptions, 20 Yards

Week 4 (Buccaneers):

• Leonard Fournette - 7 Receptions, 57 Yards
• Rachaad White - 5 Receptions, 50 Yards

The Chiefs have not gone one game this season without allowing less than eight receptions to opposing running backs. With Jacobs operating almost exclusively as the receiving back, he should be in for another good night against the Chiefs. In his two games against the Chiefs last year, he had five receptions for 46 yards and five receptions for 20 yards. His number is set at 18.5 receiving yards and 2.5 receptions (with juice) on most books. This line is probably low because Jacobs wasn't used much in the passing game in his first two games, but now that the offense is meshing, his role is increasing as a receiver. He also cleared this number in both games against the Chiefs last season. With Jacobs coming off a career game, you can expect the Raiders will look to make him a key piece in the offense again tonight. I expect Josh Jacobs to clear both his receptions and receiving prop tonight against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the most action of any team in the NFL to opposing running backs.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks

• Josh Jacobs Over 2.5 Receptions (-165) (Bet $165 to win $100)
• Josh Jacobs Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)

Looking for the best sportsbook offers? Check out the free bets page