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NFL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi analyzes the prop market for the Week 6 showdown between the Chiefs and the Bills. Come find out his Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills player prop bets.
ANALYSIS

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Player Prop Picks: Will Josh Allen Help the Bills Get a Win?

Chiefs vs. Bills Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: October 16, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:25 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS

Click Here for Chiefs vs Bills Odds

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction

As many of you may remember, the Bills' 2021 season ended in devastating fashion. Facing the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, Josh Allen threw a touchdown pass to Gabriel Davis with just 13 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. The score gave Buffalo a three-point lead, one that seemed insurmountable due to the lack of time left on the clock. Patrick Mahomes had other ideas, though, driving 44 yards down the field to set up a game-tying field goal. Kansas City would go on to win the overtime coin toss, score a touchdown, and end Buffalo's season.

On Sunday, we have the privilege of witnessing a rematch between these two great teams. The Bills, considered by most to be the best team in football, will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs, whom many see as the second-best. The game has easily the highest projected total of the week at 54 points flat, which is among the higher totals we've seen all season. Is that fact sufficiently priced into the props market for the game? Let's take a closer look.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks

Josh Allen Over 295.5 Passing Yards (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)

As far as passing yards totals go, 295.5 is a high number to cover. All things considered, though, it should be higher. Allen has been on an absolute tear to start the season. Through five games, the only outing where he recorded fewer than 297 passing yards was a mucky game in the rain against the Ravens. In his other four games, he threw for 424, 400, 317, and 297 yards (an average of 359.5). None of those performances were products of game script-based passing volume, either — the Bills led for long stretches in all four, often by substantial margins. This explosive Bills offense continues to churn, no matter what the score is.

This game will be an opportunity for Buffalo's passing offense to flourish. Given the game's projected total, the market has supported the potential for a shootout. On top of that, the offense will be facing a weakened Kansas City secondary. Starting cornerback Rashad Fenton will miss the game with a hamstring injury, and first-round rookie CB Trent McDuffie is unlikely to return from injured reserve. This Bills passing attack laid waste to the Steelers last week, and there is a good chance we see a repeat performance. Take the over for Allen's passing yards.

Juju Smith-Schuster Over 4.5 Receptions (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)

Last week against the Raiders, Juju Smith-Schuster saw his snap share increase from 63% (his share from the prior week) to 86%. That is a noteworthy shift — by being on the field for 86% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps, Smith-Schuster increased his opportunity for production. Indeed, he was targeted eight times, which tied his season-high for targets. However, that fact may be flying under the radar given that he caught just three passes in the game. Targets tend to be a better predictor of future pass-catching production than nearly any other statistic, so it's likely that Juju will convert his targets into more receptions in the coming weeks.

The Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL against the run. Their defense has allowed just 3.5 yards per carry, which is the third-lowest in the league. As such, the Chiefs will need to throw early and often if they want to win this game. The prop market seems to (partially) recognize this — Mahomes' pass attempts prop is set at over/under 40.5 attempts. For reference, Mahomes has surpassed that mark just once in five games this season.

The line for Smith-Schuster's receptions total has not been sufficiently adjusted to account for the projected volume of Kansas City's passing attack. Given that Travis Kelce — who has been the best pass-catching tight end in the league for years — caught four touchdowns last week, the Bills' defense may focus on limiting him even more than they usually would. This will open up opportunities for the Chiefs' wideouts to make plays against favorable coverage. With Smith-Schuster increasing his role and continuing to see a substantial number of targets in recent weeks, I think that this number is simply low. 5.5 is also available at plus money, but I prefer to take the lower number with juice in this case.

Article Author

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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