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NFL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi analyzes his top prop pick for Sunday's game between the Dolphins and the Lions in Week 8.
ANALYSIS

Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction, Player Prop Pick: Should We Trust Raheem Mostert to Produce?

Lions vs. Dolphins Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: October 30, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS

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Miami has had an up-and-down season, starting off 3-0 before dropping three straight due to Tua Tagovailoa's injury absence. In Tua's return, the Dolphins managed a 16-10 victory over the Steelers, although there was clearly some residual rust on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Lions, who were once the sweethearts of the NFL media, have fallen off a cliff, losing their last four games to drop to 1-5.

This matchup presents an intriguing opportunity to capitalize on one of the league's worst run defenses. The Lions have been absolutely gashed on the ground this season, and there is a great chance of that trend continuing here against one of the league's most creative run schemes. Let's take a closer look.

Lions vs. Dolphins Player Prop Prediction

Raheem Mostert Over 68.5 Rush Yards (-111) (Bet $100 to collect $189) Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

Over the last four weeks, Raheem Mostert has revitalized Miami's run game. Mostert's familiarity with the offensive system has undoubtedly helped—he spent five years playing under now-Miami head coach Mike McDaniel in San Francisco. Still, this level of production was hard to foresee. Mostert has averaged 77.5 rushing yards per game over the last four games, a span over which he has finally received a clear majority of touches at the running back position. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season, demonstrating that his efficiency has not dissipated despite a few injury-filled seasons.

This is a game with all signs pointing towards heavy usage and production for Mostert. The Lions' defense has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game at 129.8, 39.6 more than the league median. That rate is not solely a function of game script, either—the Lions have also allowed the third-most yards per carry at 5.4. That isn't to say that the game script won't favor Mostert—the Dolphins are 4-point favorites, meaning they will likely lead for a large portion of the game. So, we're looking at a running back who has averaged significantly more yards per game than the current line (once he became the starter), is facing a horrendous run defense, and will probably see a positive game script. I think this line is too low—take the value on the over.

Article Author

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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