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The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions come into their Week 9 matchup from losses. NFL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi outlines his top two player prop bets for Sunday's game between the Packers and the Lions.
ANALYSIS

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction, Player Prop Picks: Should We Trust Aaron Jones to Produce?

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date - Sunday, November 6, 2022
  • Game Time - 1:00 p.m. EDT/10:00 a.m. PDT
  • Where - Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
  • Where to Watch - FOX

Click Here For Lions vs. Packers Odds

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday brings us a matchup between two teams that have both underperformed this NFL season. The Packers, who came into the season as the favorites to win the NFC North, have struggled offensively due to the loss of Davante Adams and various offensive line injuries. They are 3-5, badly in need of a win to snap a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, head coach Dan Campbell's honeymoon period in Detroit appears to be over, with the Lions sitting at 1-6 after five straight losses.

So, let's take a look at the prop market for the game. I considered a few prop bets, but I ultimately landed on two that I think to hold significant value. Both feature players who, in my opinion, stand to benefit from the offensive circumstance. Let's dive in.

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Lions vs. Packers Player Prop Predictions

Aaron Jones Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-111) (Bet $100 to collect $189) Click here for the best odds, available at BetMGM

Aaron Jones has had one of the more unusual starts to a season in recent memory. His distribution of rushing yards is essentially bimodal—he has averaged 92.7 rushing yards per game in wins but only 59.4 rushing yards in losses. While we expect game script to generally push running back production in this direction, the discrepancy between wins and losses is rarely this pronounced.

Luckily, this game against the Lions is setting up nicely for a positive game script. The Packers are 3.5-point favorites, meaning they will, more likely than not, be leading for most of the game. On top of that, the Lions have a horrendous run defense. They have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game at 122.9 and the fourth-most yards per carry at 5.2. Combining these two factors paints a nice picture for Aaron Jones—this matchup is shaping up to be a spot where he has the potential to flourish.

It's also worth noting that Green Bay's offense looked somewhat functional last week against Buffalo, and much of that was because of the run game. Even though the Bills have an elite defense—particularly against the run—Aaron Jones rushed 20 times for 143 yards. This was the highest number of carries that Jones has received in a game all season; perhaps it is a signal that the Packers will look to involve him more as they move forward. All signs point to this game against the Lions involving a lot of Aaron Jones—64.5 yards is not a high enough line to account for this probable usage.

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Mason Crosby Over 1.5 Made Field Goals (-123) (Bet $100 to Collect $177) Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

It seems highly likely that the Packers will be able to consistently move the ball on Sunday. Their points total prop for the game is set at over/under 26.5, shaded towards the over—the market views this as an advantageous spot for the Packers' offense. It's not difficult to see why, given that the Lions have allowed the most yards per game in the NFL this season at 421.3. They have also allowed the most points per game at 32.1, 5.1 higher than the second-place team on the list (Chargers at 27.0).

The question then becomes: will the Packers score touchdowns at will on Sunday, or will they stall out in the red zone? Detroit's red zone defense has been poor, which probably explains why Crosby's line is where it is. However, I'm not convinced that the Packers' offense will suddenly be operating efficiently enough to walk into the end zone on every drive. They still have major questions at wide receiver, particularly with the injuries to Allen Lazard and Christian Watson. Their offensive line is also hindered by the probable absences of David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. I think that Green Bay's offense will post a solid number against this atrocious Lions defense, but many of those points will come on field goals from Crosby.

Article Author

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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