Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop: Can Justin Fields Run Over the Dolphins' Defense?
Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop: Can Justin Fields Run Over the Dolphins' Defense?
I feel like a broken record coming on here every week and talking about Justin Fields, but he’s been very good for us this season. This week we get him in a pretty solid matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who have been very strong on offense when Tua is healthy. This is projected to be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate, and with the advantage, Miami has on offense, I think Fields will need to rely a lot on his legs to keep this game close.
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Bears vs. Dolphins Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: November 6, 2022
- Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Click Here for Bears vs Dolphins Odds
Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
Honestly, the toughest part about this one for me was deciding between rushing yards and rushing attempts. Fields should have multiple short scrambles and short yardage situations on 3rd & 1 or goal-line situations but he also had a 15+ yard rush in four of his last five games.
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While this isn't that applicable, I did see a cool stat, according to Next Gen Stats, Fields has recorded the fastest play of the season, running at 21.23 MPH last week. He’s arguably already one of the best running quarterbacks in football and finds himself in a good matchup. After a slow start, (back-to-back 20-yard rushing games) Fields has 47+ rush yards in every game since.
One of the reasons I've continued to bet on Fields these last couple of weeks is because he keeps getting these teams that blitz at an above-average rate. At this point in his career, behind the offensive line, he’s working with, he’s rarely going to make it beyond his first/second read in these blitz situations. What do you do in that situation? You scramble out of the pocket and use your legs.
Looking at his scramble percentage, he currently ranks first in the NFL at 16%, to put that in context Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are at 7.4% and 8.7% currently. The other good news is that he is finally getting more designed runs, while he was ranking out of the top 10 in the first couple of weeks, he’s now second behind Lamar Jackson since Week 5.
Finally, let's take a look at the other two rushing quarterbacks and how they did. Lamar Jackson had his best day of the season on the ground, running nine times for 119 yards and a touchdown. Allen would also have a good day on the ground, running eight times for 47 yards to supplement his 400 passing yards. With a run game composed of Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery looking scary on the ground, defenses really don't overreact to Fields.
Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Pick
Justin Fields o49.5 Rush Yards -115. Bet $100 to collect $187.