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WeBeatTheSpread is here with an NFL pick on Sunday for the Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers. Come find out his Packers vs Lions prediction, pick, and odds.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Aaron Rodgers Get Back on Track?

The NFC North is one of the weakest divisions in the NFL this season and gives us a matchup today between the surprisingly 3-5 Packers and the not-so-surprisingly 1-6 Lions. Aaron Rodgers is now 0-4 in his last four games after a 3-1 start to the season, while the Lions are 0-5 in their last five after losing a close one against the Lions last week. Can Aaron Rodgers and the Packers cover this -4 spread on the road? Let's break it down with my prediction, pick, and odds.

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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: November 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction

This game is likely going to be a shootout. Neither defense has been showing up, as the packers rank 22nd overall in defensive DVOA and the Lions 32nd. But I'm not going through all the usual stats and stuff we usually go through in the articles. This one is simpler.

To be honest, this line makes no sense to me. This line would have made sense last year, and in fact, the line was the exact same last year in Detroit when the Lions won 37-30 as four-point underdogs in January. It is ludicrous with how bad the Packers have been playing that they warrant the same line on the road as they laid last year, a game in which they failed to cover. All the noise about the receiving room and offensive line aside, Rodgers has actually never been dominant over the Lions, spread-wise.

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In fact, The Lions are 8-2 against the spread in the last ten meeting against the Packers. The Lions have also covered five straight home meetings with the Packers. This isn't Rodgers against the Bears (that's an auto bet every time, by the way), and the Lions have honestly had HIS number in Detroit. They have won five of the last nine games at home outright.

It doesn't take a genius to see how much the Packers are struggling right now. They get a pass for the Bills' loss, but losing three straight against the Giants, Jets, and Commanders? Sorry, no excuses there. Two of those games were at home. Yes, the Giants and Jets are both much better this season, but that's a three-game stretch that you have to at LEAST get one win in. Yeah, the Lions haven't been much better on paper, but their games have been close losses against some good teams. Don't forget that the Lions only lost by three against the 8-0 Eagles at home in week one.

In seven games, the Lions have lost by more than four points only twice, and those were both road games against non-divisional opponents. The Lions have consistently played better at home, especially against their own division. This is the Lions' first game at home this season in a divisional game, and they are playing a Packers team that hasn't been able to buy a win lately.

I know betting on the Lions can be scary, but they should win this game outright. Their resume has been much more impressive this season despite a 1-6 record compared to 3-5. They took the Dolphins, Eagles, Vikings, and Seahawks down to the last possession. The Lions caught four points in their home game against the Packers last year and won outright. It should happen again this season. Aaron Rodgers is bound to get back on track, but this won't be the game it happens.

Lions vs. Packers Pick

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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