Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Pick: TNF Prediction and Odds

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Pick: TNF Prediction and Odds

Panthers vs. Falcons Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: November 10, 2022
• Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
• Where to Watch: Prime Video

Click Here for Panthers vs Falcons Odds

The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons meet for their second meeting of the NFL season after the Falcons won at home 37-34 two weeks ago. For this meeting, starting running back Cordarrelle Patterson is back after getting injured in the Browns game. However, although we are backing a Falcons running back tonight with our pick, it is not Patterson.

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Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

Although Patterson is back and healthy for this game, I'm willing to bet that Tyler Allgeier sees a good workload still. In last week's close loss against the Chargers, Allgeier had 10 carries for 99 yards, while Patterson had 13 carries for 44 yards. Of course, Patterson was likely splitting more snaps because he was returning from an injury, but the same effect could linger in this game. While Patterson was sidelined, Allgeier operated as the main back, along with Caleb Huntley as the number two. In that time, Allgeier passed this line in all five games without Patterson (including the game Patterson went out). It was expected that Allgeier would see less work once Patterson returned, but with how good of a game Allgeier had last week, we should expect to see him continue to get carries.

Allgeier is coming off his best game of the season, and that was with Patterson on the field and healthy. He broke off a 44-yard rush and was just one yard shy of 100 rushing yards on only 10 carries. Part of this is because the Falcons were facing one of the worst rushing defenses in the Chargers, who rank 29th in rushing DVOA. This week, however, they face another weak rushing defense in the Panthers. The Panthers are allowing the 28th most rushing yards per game, but of course, some of that is because they are in a negative game script a lot of the time. Still, by weighted DVOA that accounts for those things has them ranked 23rd in rushing defense.

Another aspect of this play is the weather. There is a 90% chance of rain at Bank of America Field tonight, and wind gusts will accompany the precipitation. There will be constant 10-12 mph winds, and this weather has brought the line down from 44.5 to 41.5. What do wind and rain mean? Lots of running. The Falcons own the fourth-best rushing offense by DVOA and run the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL entering this game, and that was without weather being a factor. Arthur Smith and the Falcons will likely keep the ball on the ground all night, limiting Mariota's throws downfield. Although Patterson is back, Allgeier is still a productive backup and has seen at least ten carries every game since week two. He has passed 33.5 rushing yards in every game since week two, and I expect him to hit this line again tonight. I would take this number up to 36.5.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Pick

• Tyler Allgeier Over 33.5 Rush Yards (-110) (Bet $100 to Win $190) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel