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The Miami Dolphins host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in Week 10 of the NFL season. Handicapper and player props expert Gray Gutfreund is here with the best NFL player prop to make for the Dolphins vs. Browns.
ANALYSIS

Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction, Player Prop Pick: Will Jaylen Waddle Go Off Against Cleveland?

Dolphins vs. Browns Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: November 13, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS

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Think Jaylen Waddle will light up the Browns defense this week? Click here to claim over $5,000 worth of sports betting bonuses to use on Dolphins vs Browns.

The Miami Dolphins have a top-tier passing offense this NFL season. They rank first in yards and yards per attempt and are also second in expected points added through the air. One trio is responsible for this success: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle.

Today, I think Jaylen Waddle will continue to torment opposing secondaries. It's unlikely the Browns will be able to get in Miami's way, and Waddle has been one of the league's most productive receivers when he and Tua have been healthy together. There's a ton of value in the second-year pro's props for Week 10.

Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction

Jaylen Waddle Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (Bet $115 to collect $215) Click here for the best odds, available at BetMGM

Jaylen Waddle is averaging 90.2 receiving yards per game this season. And he's only getting better as the season goes on. That number has jumped to 102.0 YPG over his last four contests.

Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has played six full games this season. Whenever the Dolphins' starting QB has been on the field, it's been smooth sailing for Jaylen Waddle. He's yet to finish with anything less than 69 yards in a full Tua game, averaging 103.5 YPG when playing with his former college teammate.

The Dolphins' WR2 is still seeing a healthy dosage of targets despite the presence of Tyreek Hill, who might just be the best receiver in football right now. In Tua's six full games, Waddle averages 8.5 targets per game, which isn't too far behind Tyreek's 10.7 targets per game. If anything, the former Chiefs WR is opening up the field for Waddle, who's averaging 17.3 yards per reception, nearly double his 9.8 Y/R mark from 2021.

So, who can stop the best wide receiver duo in football? Well, probably not the Cleveland Browns. They're about average if we look at expected points contributed by passing defense, ranking 14th. But they're also giving up the 7th most yards per attempt and the 12th-highest opponent passer rating.

Out of the 16 players averaging at least 70 yards per game this season, Cleveland has somehow only faced one. They faced Mike Williams and the Chargers back in Week 5, and Williams finished with 10 receptions for 134 yards. Only four receivers have been targeted at least 8 times against Cleveland this season, and each of them finished with 80+ yards. The Browns haven't faced a ton of receiver volume in 2022, and that's about to change drastically this afternoon.

Article Author

NFLNBA

Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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