Monday Night Football Best Prop Bet: Lock in This Curtis Samuel Bet for Commanders vs Eagles
Monday Night Football Best Prop Bet: Lock in This Curtis Samuel Bet for Commanders vs Eagles
An interesting week around the NFL closes tonight with the 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles hosting the 4-5 Washington Commanders. When these two met back in September, the Eagles cruised to an easy 24-8 victory, with the lone touchdown for the Commanders coming late in the fourth quarter. However, Carson Wentz was still under center for that game, so things may be a little different this time around with Taylor Heinicke. I have a prop pick for this game that should cash with relative ease.
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Eagles vs. Commanders Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: November 14, 2022
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Eagles vs. Commanders Odds
- Moneyline: Eagles (-500), Commanders (+400)
- Spread: Eagles -11 (107), Commanders +11 (-107)
- Total: Over/Under 44 (-110)
Click Here for Eagles vs. Commanders Odds
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Pick
2U Pick: Curtis Samuel O39.5 Receiving Yards (-110). Bet $200 to win $381. FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet
Taylor Heinicke is an apparent upgrade from Carson Wentz. Most of his numbers are slightly better. He is 1% better on completions, averages .4 more yards per completion, and has a slightly higher rating by 3.5 points over Wentz. The more significant thing is his ability to escape a sack. He only has been sacked six times in three games, while Wentz was sacked 23 times in six games. As far as the change of quarterback affecting Samuel's production, it shouldn't.
Curtis Samuel has been a strong number two for the Commanders. Now in his sixth season in the NFL, he has never been a top receiver, but he has thrived further down the depth chart. Specifically, in this matchup, Samuel should see a decent amount of action tonight through the air.
For starters, the Commanders are 11-point underdogs, so we will likely see the Commanders run a pass-heavy game in a negative game script, like in their first meeting with the Eagles this season. The more Heinicke drops back, the more opportunities for McLaurin and Samuel to rack up yards. The only problem for McLaurin is he'll be covered by two stellar cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradberry, for most of the game. Not many receivers have found success against those two this year. This means that Curtis Samuel will be Heinicke's best option out of the slot tonight.
Samuel lines up in the slot on 68% of snaps, and he has found success there this season. In his first game against the Eagles this year, Samuel hauled in seven receptions for 48 yards. This was with top nickel corner Avonte Maddox in the game as well. Maddox is on the IR with a hamstring injury, so backup Josiah Scott will fill his role. This, combined with the Eagle's stout cornerbacks covering McLaurin and Dotson, means there will be plenty of opportunities in the middle of the field for Samuel in this game. The Eagles have allowed the lowest rate of explosive plays over 16 yards this season, but there will be plenty of opportunities for Samuel in the short passing game.
Curtis Samuel has been slowly beating this number in almost every game this season. In the three games Heinicke has been under center, Samuel has had lines of 53, 50, and 65 yards. Samuel has passed this number of 39.5 yards in seven of his nine games this year, including the first game against the Eagles. In what will almost certainly be another negative game script, Heinicke will have to air it out often tonight playing from behind. Samuel should be able to hit this number in four receptions, and with a backup on him for most of the night, he should cover this low line.
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.