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In Week 11, the Browns and the Bills will face off in Detroit, a neutral-site game due to the snowstorm set to hit Buffalo over the weekend. NFL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi breaks down the best anytime touchdown bets to place for this game.
ANALYSIS

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets: NFL Week 11 Player Props

Heading into the week, we were set up to see our first major snow game of the NFL season. A massive storm is expected to hit the Buffalo area over the next couple of days, with upwards of six feet of snowfall being a distinct possibility. As a result, the total on this game plummeted from an opening line of O/U 47.5 to around 42. Then, the NFL announced that the game will be taking place in Detroit, citing safety concerns as the main reason for the move. It was probably the right decision, but it's still a disappointment—who doesn't love a snow game?

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When the new location for the game was announced, the total skyrocketed from 42 to around 48.5. The prop market has adjusted accordingly, with the predicted run-heavy script discarded in favor of a potential passing explosion that's now possible under Ford Field's dome. Using that shift as a baseline, here are two anytime TD bets that I believe hold value for Sunday's matchup between the Bills and the Browns.

Bills vs. Browns Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: November 20, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS

Click here for Bills vs Browns Odds

Bills vs. Browns Best Anytime TD Scorer Picks

Stefon Diggs (+105) Bet $100 to collect $205.

The Bills are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL, due in large part to their desire to maximize Josh Allen's arm talent. With the news that Sunday's game will be played in a dome, I don't expect that pattern of offensive play-calling to change. Cleveland's defense, which ranks 31st in DVOA this year, has conceded the eighth-most yards per pass attempt (7.1). Buffalo will look to exploit this from the start of the game on Sunday, given that their biggest strength perfectly corresponds with Cleveland's defensive weakness (i.e. massive competitive advantage for the Bills).

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Diggs has been a touchdown-producing machine this season—his seven scores tie him for third in the NFL. Those touchdowns are reasonably spread across his sample of games; he has found the end zone in five of his nine games. As such, there is value at plus money for Diggs to replicate that scoring success on Sunday. The Bills' projected point total is up to 28.5 at Pinnacle following the venue change, meaning that the market expects the Bills to score 3-4 touchdowns (the most likely outcome, to be precise). If their offense is able to do that—which should be a manageable task, given the ease of throwing inside a dome combined with the lackluster Browns secondary—I like Diggs' chances of getting at least one.

Amari Cooper (+210) Bet $100 to collect $310.

The Browns' passing attack was a popular fade coming into the year, due to the Browns' strong run game and the suspension of Deshaun Watson. While the ground game has indeed been the focal point of their offense, the passing game has been reasonably effective alongside it. The Browns are 3-6, yes, but that record is largely a byproduct of their bottom-tier defense, not their offense. Amari Cooper, in particular, has had a strong season despite the fact that Jacoby Brissett has been throwing him the ball. Cooper leads the Browns with five touchdowns, a mark that ties him for ninth in the NFL.

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The game script should favor Cooper in this spot. The Bills are eight-point favorites, meaning that the Browns will likely be trailing for the majority of the game. This, in turn, raises the probability that the Browns will score touchdowns by throwing the ball. On top of that, the fact that Buffalo is heavily favored means that Cleveland will be in a good position to score a garbage-time touchdown. Given Cooper's status as the Browns' top receiver, he would be first in line to capitalize on such an opportunity. At +210, I think there's value for Cooper to snag a touchdown on Sunday.

Article Author

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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