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The Saints travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Bucs for a classic NFC South showdown. Who will take the win for Monday Night Football? Let's get into it.
ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction, Player Prop Pick: Can Tom Brady Conquer the Saints?

The NFC South is one of the weakest NFL divisions we've seen in recent history. And, if the New Orleans Saints can emerge victorious on Monday Night Football, we may see something resembling a 4-way tie in the coming weeks.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled immensely against the Saints over the last couple of years. Although it's always tough to bet against the greatest to ever do it, it would be foolish to think Brady can conquer this Saints' defense this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Monday, December 5, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Click here for Bucs vs Saints odds

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction

Tom Brady Under 273.5 Passing Yards (-115) Bet $115 to collect $215

*Best Odds Available at BetMGM*

The Buccaneers' offense has been painfully inefficient in 2022. They can't run the ball with any consistency, and they've suffered a major decrease in passing efficiency. Brady's 6.5 yards per attempt is a considerable drop-off from his 7.6 and 7.4 marks in 2020 and 2021, respectively. And, that figure marks TB12's second-lowest in 22 years as an NFL starting QB.

Additionally, this specific matchup has given Tom terrific some nightmares lately. The New Orleans Saints, led by head coach and defensive play-caller Dennis Allen, have had Tom Brady's number since he arrived in Tampa in 2020.

Brady has remained under this line in five of six total games against the Saints since 2020, averaging just 237.7 passing yards per game. The Saints have figured out how to bring pressure against Brady with four pass rushers while dropping seven defenders in coverage. Against a ravaged Bucs' offensive line that's now also down Tristan Wirfs, that shouldn't be too challenging on Monday night.

This season, Brady has cashed this under in six of 11 games. But, let's dive into those five games where he hit the over. In his five 275-plus yard games this season, he’s thrown 44+ passes in every game, averaging 51.0 attempts per game. He went just 18/34 last game vs. New Orleans, so it's hard to imagine that type of extreme volume being there.

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Furthermore, the 45-year-old has thrown for more than 6.6 yards per attempt just once in his six games vs. NOLA since 2020. The Saints have a top-10 pass rush, and the Bucs lack protection while already having one of the least efficient passing attacks in football this season. This is an easy fade, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see TB12 struggle in this primetime divisional battle.

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Article Author

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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