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The Super Bowl hype is building, as we are only 11 days away from the big game. Handicapper WeBeatTheSpread is here to break down his Super Bowl 57 MVP prediction and pick.
ANALYSIS

2023 Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Is Travis Kelce the Best Value Bet?

As we draw closer to Super Bowl 57 in Glendale, Arizona, it's time to start thinking about who will win the MVP. Of course, the first step to picking the MVP is to guess who will win. Only one player in NFL history has lost the Super Bowl and won MVP, and that was Cowboys linebacker, Chuck Howley. With that said, I think the Chiefs will win, which narrows it down a bit.

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Super Bowl Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Sunday, February 12, 2022
  • Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

Click here for Super Bowl Odds

Super Bowl MVP Prediction

The player I am betting on to win the MVP award is Travis Kelce at +1300 (at Fanduel). Sure, the quarterbacks are favored heavily, as they should be. Mahomes is +120 to win MVP, and Hurts is +125 (which is interesting because Mahomes is slightly favored to win MVP, even though the Chiefs are underdogs). However, with how close this game is expected to be, I don't see any value in betting on Mahomes at +125. The Chiefs are +106 on the money line right now at Fanduel, so betting at Mahomes +125 based on the contingency that they have to win the game for Mahomes to be MVP at odds barely higher than the money line seems silly. From a value standpoint, Kelce makes more sense.

While it seems like the winning quarterback is always MVP, there are several recent instances of other players getting the award. Look no further than last year's Super Bowl, where Cooper Kupp was named the MVP with eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Julian Edelman won the MVP award three years prior with ten catches, 141 yards, and no touchdowns. However, these two were wide receivers, and Travis Kelce is a tight end. Why does that have significance? Well, no tight end has EVER won Super Bowl MVP. Kelce would be the first, and it would be fitting, considering he could be the greatest receiving tight end of all time.

Even with back spasms leaving Kelce questionable for the AFC Championship, Travis Kelce grabbed seven passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown brought his playoff touchdown total to 17 in only 15 career playoff games, and he is now tied with Rob Gronkowski for second all-time in that category.

In Super Bowl 55, Kelce had ten catches for 133 yards, with Tyreek Hill on the team still. Of course, the Chiefs lost that game badly, but it showed us that Kelce always performs in big games, making him a good candidate for Super Bowl MVP. Since the 2019 playoffs, Kelce had hit over 90 yards in all but one of his playoff games, with that lone under being his last game against the Bengals when he was dealing with an injury. He also has nine combined touchdowns over his eight playoff games since 2019.

With Mahomes dealing with an ankle injury, I think he looks to Kelce even more than he already does. Kelce was limited by an injury himself in the AFC Championship, but he still found a way to be a key factor in the win, including his huge fourth-down touchdown in the second quarter. No one on the Chiefs is better with the ball after the catch, and Kelce makes big play after big play every game. If a tight end is ever going to win Super Bowl MVP, Travis Kelce would be a perfect candidate. Of course, Mahomes has the better chance to win the award if the Chiefs win, but if Kelce breaks 100 yards and has at least one touchdown, +1300 is a great price to have on him to be named MVP.

Super Bowl MVP Pick

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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