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We are only a week away from Super Bowl LVII. Matt MacKay is here to share his best player prop picks for the game. Read on to see why he's eyeing DeVonta Smith.
ANALYSIS

DeVonta Smith Prop Picks, Predictions for Super Bowl 2023: Eagles vs. Chiefs

Super Bowl LVII between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will kick off next weekend from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. It's packed with storylines and rivalries, as Chiefs head coach Andy Reid prepares to face his former team, while Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has plenty of reasons to have revenge on his mind. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to preview an exciting matchup between two winning organizations with his DeVonta Smith prop picks ahead of the Super Bowl.

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Super Bowl Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Sunday, February 12, 2022
  • Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

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DeVonta Smith Prop Picks, Predictions for Super Bowl 2023: Eagles vs. Chiefs

In two playoff games, we've seen Sirianni dial up a run-heavy approach with the Eagles' offense. It's been highly effective, as they have racked up seven rushing touchdowns, including four against the league's top-ranked 49ers run defense in the NFC Championship game. It works for several reasons but a big one is due to the talented offensive line unit. They play with cohesion, experience, and a collective skill that is unmatched by most other teams. Lane Johnson is still dominating edge rushers despite playing through a groin injury, while Jason Kelce and Landon Dickerson terrorize interior defensemen with stout run blocking and intricate pulling.

Lost in this run-heavy approach is how explosive Philadelphia remains in the passing game. Jalen Hurts was the leading MVP candidate until his shoulder sprain injury in Week 15. Yes, a lot of it is due to his elite ability to be a ball carrier within the Eagles' offense, but he still threw for over 3,700 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions, completing over 66 percent of his pass attempts. The arrival of A.J. Brown opened up a lot more opportunities for Sirianni to dial up downfield targets, but it also aided second-year wideout, Devonta Smith. The former Heisman-winning wideout has developed quicker than his route-running ability in another year of Sirianni's system, catching 95 receptions for 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns in 17 regular season games.

Smith has been the leading receiver for the Eagles in both playoff games, including a more dominant outing against the Giants secondary in the Divisional Round. Will we see him produce with more opportunity against a talented Kansas City run defense?

Let's get into our DeVonta Smith prop picks for Super Bowl LVII.

DeVonta Smith Player Prop Picks

DeVonta Smith Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-130) Bet $100 to collect $176 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

DeVonta Smith had his best game against a good but not great Giants secondary in the NFC Divisional Round. He caught six of ten targets for 61 receiving yards and a touchdown, so oddsmakers are setting his prop at 61.5 based on the ceiling that we've seen from Smith in two playoff games. Before Hurts' injury, Smith had logged games of 102, 64, and 126 receiving yards. He made one early catch to move the Eagles into the red zone against the 49ers and still led the team with 36 receiving yards. There will be more opportunities against Kansas City in the passing attack, especially with how effective the Eagles have been in the run game. Getting defenders to load the box and contain the RPO will open up windows for Philadelphia's WR2 to thrive downfield, where most of his targets are found. I'm loving the over 61.5 receiving yards prop for Smith against a Chiefs defense that will force Philadelphia to play more balanced football.

DeVonta Smith Anytime TD Scorer (+155) Bet $100 to collect $255 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Since we're talking about Smith having more volume, there's a near certainty that he'll find the end zone for the second time this postseason. Tight end Dallas Goedert has scored the only other receiving touchdown for Philadelphia and A.J. Brown has been held in check, getting shallow 3.5 yards per target on underneath routes due to defenses scheming against the Eagles' WR1. The Chiefs' rookie cornerbacks will continue to focus on Brown while also keeping an eye on crashing the line of scrimmage to contain run plays, which opens up Smith's ability to thrive downfield on any number of routes. He's scored only one touchdown in his last four games, but Smith has found the end zone eight times and will have a favorable opportunity to score his ninth on the NFL's biggest stage next Sunday. +155 odds are fantastic value for Smith to deliver an anytime touchdown scorer prop payout.

DeVonta Smith Over 5.5 Receptions (+110) Bet $100 to collect $210 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Based on my prediction of Philadelphia requiring a more balanced offensive game plan against Steve Spagnoulo's defense, Smith will return to his normal target volume of eight to ten targets. He's secured at least six receptions in four of his previous five games played and was only held in check against the 49ers due to the massive success of Philadelphia's rushing attack. We're getting plus odds on Smith to go over his 5.5 receptions prop at +110, which is surprisingly good, so unless you think A.J. Brown will go ballistic against a vastly improved Chiefs secondary, Smith is going to be Hurts' preferred target on passing downs. This puts Smith in a great position to cash his receptions prop at over 5.5 receptions with a lot of value intact.

DeVonta Smith Super Bowl LVII Player Prop Picks

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Article Author

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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.

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