Super Bowl 2023 Prop Bets: Should You Fade Jerick McKinnon?
Super Bowl 2023 Prop Bets: Should You Fade Jerick McKinnon?
When going through prop bets for Super Bowl 57, I came across a running back prop that I love. This prop is on Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon. Let's jump into my pick.
Super Bowl Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: Sunday, February 12, 2022
- Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
- TV Coverage: FOX
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Super Bowl 2023 Prop Bet: Jerick McKinnon
Jerick McKinnon has had up-and-down usage in the Chiefs' offense, but his role had increased significantly after Clyde Edwards-Helaire went out with an injury in Week 11 against the Chargers. Since then, McKinnon had been operating as the number two back behind Pacheco.
However, Edwards-Helaire has been activated off the IR for the Super Bowl. While this isn't necessarily super significant to McKinnon's usage, it will likely eat into some of his snaps. With how good Pacheco is playing, I think Edwards-Helaire will share snaps with McKinnon rather than with Pacheco. McKinnon's usage had already dropped in the postseason anyway before Edwards-Helaire was brought back into the picture.
Isaiah Pacheco out-snapped McKinnon 39-27 in the AFC Title game, and the move paid off for the Chiefs. Pacheco had 85 yards of offense on 15 touches. Earlier in the season, McKinnon was known as the main receiving back, but that role has been overshadowed by Pacheco, who has been explosive as a receiver out of the backfield. In the AFC Championship, Pacheco had five catches for 59 yards, while McKinnon had two receptions for 17 yards. McKinnon did not have a catch in the divisional round.
McKinnon had a large role in the passing game from Weeks 13-16, posting receiving lines of 112, 70, 31, and 52 yards, but aside from that, his usage has been so-so. In 19 games, he has passed this receiving line of 22.5 yards in 10 of them, while going under in nine of them. However, Pacheco has taken an increased role as a receiver and has been the main look in the dump-offs lately.
CEH coming back will also eat into some of McKinnon's snaps. The Eagles are allowing an average of 32.9 receiving yards to running backs per game, and that would mean McKinnon would have to have a significant role in the passing game to cover over half of the average yards the Eagles allow per game. I don't see it happening. Pacheco has emerged as the best running back on the team, and Mckinnon's role has diminished in the postseason. He has not hit this line yet in the playoffs, and with Mahomes' ankle looking healthier ahead of the Super Bowl, I expect fewer dump-offs in the big game. I am on Mckinnon to go under 22.5 receiving yards.
Super Bowl 2023 Prop Bet: Jerick McKinnon
- Jerick McKinnon U22.5 Receiving Yards @ -110 Bet $100 to collect $190 Get the best odds at FanDuel, click here to bet
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.