Super Bowl 2023 Predictions: Our Staff's Best Bets for Super Bowl LVII
Super Bowl 2023 Predictions: Our Staff's Best Bets for Super Bowl LVII
The biggest betting day of the year is upon us, as the 2023 Super Bowl is now just hours away! The stage is set. Super Bowl LVII will occur at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on February 12, when the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The storylines are tremendous heading into Super Bowl LVII, and there are many ways to get in on the action. Maybe it's an against-the-spread pick, a player prop bet, a same-game parlay, or even a bet on Rihanna's halftime show.
This is the final stop of another great NFL season. We gathered our premier stable of handicappers and asked each to deliver their best Super Bowl bet. Here are our staff's favorite bets for the Super Bowl.
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Super Bowl Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: Sunday, February 12, 2022
- Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
- TV Coverage: FOX
Super Bowl Odds
- Moneyline: Eagles (-120), Chiefs (+105)
- Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-110), Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 50.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-103)
Click here for Super Bowl Odds
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Super Bowl 2023 Best Bets
Over 50.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to Collect $210) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet
This year's NFL Playoffs started out with 5 straight games where the over on total points hit -- all 4 Wild Card games and the first game in the Divisional Round. With the combination of the bookmakers adjusting and the quality of defenses improving in the later rounds, the under has consequently hit in 7 straight games as we head into the Super Bowl.
With that in mind, I believe another major factor why we haven't seen many points in the recent games is the state of the quarterbacks at the helm. Starting quarterback for the 49ers, Brock Purdy got knocked out early in the NFC Conference Championship game, and Patrick Mahomes has been hobbled with a high ankle sprain for the Kansas City Chiefs.
With two weeks of rest and recovery, I see a Super Bowl with two healthy signal callers and two very creative offensive coaching staffs. This should equate to a lot of big plays and a lot of points.
-- Albert Nguyen (@AnalyticsCapper)
Eagles -1.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to Collect $210) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
The Philadelphia Eagles had an easier path to the Super Bowl, but let's not take away from the season they've had. The offense has been sensational behind Jalen Hurts, and the addition of A.J. Brown has helped elevate Hurts' game. Hurts hasn't been as efficient of a runner this year, but he's still got plenty of rushing ability. Meanwhile, Miles Sanders stepped up when he had been inconsistent years prior. On the other hand, the Philadelphia defense has been incredible. The pass rush is elite, and that pass rush is ultimately why Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson weren't able to perform against the Eagles in the NFC Championship game.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs escaped two one-score games in the postseason. Mahomes will be healthier, but the Eagles seem more balanced. Philadelphia will run more. They have the better offensive line and are more explosive on the defensive line. Even the secondary is more experienced compared to Kansas City's.
Back the Eagles at -1.5.
-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)
Kadarius Toney Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-120) (Bet $120 to Collect $220) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet
One of my favorite spots for the Super Bowl has to be Kadarius Toney, and the recent reports of him "running around like crazy" are a positive sign. He’s one of those players that doesn’t have high volume but is one of the most efficient receivers on a per-catch basis, as shown by his 30% TPRR and 2.27 YPRR (including playoffs). He also greatly benefits from the injuries in the WR room and the lack of elite target competition. His short yardage/gadget usage will be key in defeating a strong Philadelphia secondary.
-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-130) (Bet $130 to Collect $230) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
This one is simple and obvious, but I really do not care about either of those things. It's a solid bet and one of the easiest to envision happening on Sunday night. Travis Kelce has had a phenomenal season this year, and although Patrick Mahomes has spread the love a little more, his tight end is, without question, his favorite and most reliable target. I am sure Kelce is one of the focal points for the Eagles defensive scheme, but that can only go so far. He is incredibly difficult to cover in the red zone, and with Mahomes' ability to extend plays and the chemistry they share, I am sure they connect at some point. Through two games this postseason, he has 21 receptions and 3 touchdowns already! Kelce stays hot this week.
-- JT Miller (@RickyBobbyBets)
Chiefs to Have More 1st downs (+100) (Bet $100 to Collect $200) Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings
Both the Chiefs and the Eagles are great at picking up first downs, averaging the first and second most first downs in the league with 23.9 and 22.9, respectively. We’ll likely see some big plays from this explosive Eagles’ offense, minimizing their chances to maximize their first downs.
On the other hand, I don’t see the Chiefs hitting big plays against this Eagles defense. Rather, I think we see Kansas City get the ball down the field in 5-6 yard increments. In the case that the Eagles pick up an early lead, the Chiefs will likely be eager to add on a few more downs in late-game hurry-up settings. This play is preferred over the Chiefs money line, as I can see multiple scenarios where they cash this bet, even without picking up the win.
-- Allie O'Neill (@Allie_Sports)
Chiefs Moneyline (+105) (Bet $100 to Collect $205) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
The big storyline going into the AFC Championship was the status of Mahomes' ankle. Mahomes was in pain anytime he took a step on his ankle and got up gingerly every time he went down. He still threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Now he has two weeks to heal, so he should look at least close to 100%.
The Eagles, by the metrics, own the better offensive line, secondary, and defensive line. They seem to have the advantage just about everywhere except under center but look at their schedule. I'm not taking anything away from what the Eagles did this season, but they had the 31st-ranked strength of schedule and got here by beating the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers without a quarterback. Sure, the Eagles dominated the 49ers, but they were playing Josh Johnson and a 49ers team who almost had to play Christian McCaffrey at quarterback midgame. The Eagles are getting a step up in Super Bowl 57. They have not faced a quarterback like Mahomes all season. Who was the best quarterback they played all season? Maybe Daniel Jones? Kirk Cousins? While the Eagles have dominant numbers this season, they have not faced anyone like Mahomes. The Eagles faced three quarterbacks this season who ranked in the top 10 in EPA per dropback: Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence. Goff dropped 35 on them, Prescott 40, and Lawrence 21 (although he turned the ball over five times in a rainstorm).
Mahomes may not be fully 100% in the Super Bowl, but he will look much better than he did last game with two weeks to heal and rest. I'll take the Chiefs as underdogs against a possibly overrated Eagles team that had an easy schedule this season.
-- Ben Rajavuori (@WeBeatTheSpread)
Chiefs Moneyline (+105) (Bet $100 to Collect $205) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
I’m going to back the Chiefs in this game for one reason and one reason only…Patrick Mahomes. I told myself I would never bet against Mahomes, and I did in the AFC Championship Game. I lost, and I will officially never do it again. He’s simply way too good, and while I do think the Eagles are the better all-around team, there’s a huge gap in the quarterback department. Hurts was looking to win an MVP this season, but he’s not Patrick Mahomes. No one is. If the Chiefs can do enough to contain Philadelphia’s offense, I think the Chiefs come away with the win here. I thought about taking them at -2.5 on the alt-spread, but considering that’s only +114, I rather just play them to win the game outright at +105.
-- Jon Conahan (@JonConahan)
Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown (+135) (Bet $100 to Collect $235) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
I love the odds we getting for Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco to find the endzone! He has taken over the lead role. The best Super Bowl bet for me is Pacheco Anytime TD (+135).
-- LearLocks (@LEARLOCKS)
Same Game Parlay (-140) (Bet $140 to Collect $240) Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings
- Leg 1: Each Team Over 5.5 Points - 1st Half
- Leg 2: Each Team Over 16.5 Total Points
This SGP is worth paying the juice. The Chiefs have cashed this in every single one of their 19 games this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have cashed in 17 of their 19 games (16/17 with Jalen Hurts at QB). These hit rates are too good to pass on.
These have been the two best offenses in football all season long - they each average 28.7 points per game, good for the top two spots in the league. And they come in as the 1st and 2nd ranked first-half offenses, too. Philadelphia averaged 18.2 first-half PPG this season, while KC earned the #2 spot at 15.5 first-half PPG.
In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs have scored 31.2 points per game and allowed 24.7 PPG. Both KC and their opponents have cashed this SGP in each of the Chiefs’ five playoff games over the last two seasons.
This is an easy way to trust the two best offenses in football to show up on the biggest stage. We just need one or two scoring drives from each offense in the first 30 minutes of action, and we should be good to go!
-- Gray Gutfreund (@PropBetGuru)
Kenneth Gainwell Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-117) (Bet $117 to Collect $217) Click here for the best odds, available at BetRivers
The Eagles' change-of-pace back has been fantastic of late, and I expect them to lean on him in the Super Bowl as well. This postseason the Eagles have turned into a run-first team, and it's led to two blowout wins. I expect them to rely a little more on the pass against a below-average Chiefs secondary, but 18.5 yards is nothing for Gainwell. So far this postseason, Gainwell has 26 carries for 160 yards and a TD. That's 6.2 yards per carry in his team's most important games. They don't get more important than the Super Bowl, so look for Gainwell to continue to be a factor. He had 12 carries against the Giants and 14 against the 49ers. 10 is no stretch for him on Sunday, meaning we'd just need him to average more than 1.8 yards per carry.
-- Brian Good (@BeGood1219)
Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Over 19.5 (-105) (Bet $105 to Collect $205) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
Here we go! I know you're disappointed the touchdown guy's best bet isn't a touchdown pick. You can see my anytime touchdown picks for the Super Bowl by clicking here. This is just one of the many props I'm on for the Super Bowl. To start, this Super Bowl should play out to be an absolute slugfest. The Eagles may game plan to establish the run early, but no matter how good this Philadelphia defense is, I believe Patrick Mahomes will be able to put points on the board. This will force the Eagles to do the same. The Eagles are likely to lean on the run game early and often, which will force the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to put more bodies in the box, which will open up the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts to connect with Goedert. Goedert led all Eagles pass catchers with 47% of the targets out of play-action. This sets up a good opportunity for a play-action pass to Goedert in the middle of the field in space.
The Chiefs had the best offense in the league, while the Eagles were the No. 3 offense during the regular season by both DVOA and EPA per play. Both offenses ranked higher than both defenses. This game should be close, and both teams will be throwing the ball late into the fourth quarter. Despite the dominating win in the NFC Championship that saw the Eagles pass just 7 times in the second half, Goedert led the team with a 25% target share and now has three consecutive outings with 22% or more. Goedert went over this long reception number in 8 of 13 healthy games, or 61.9% of the time. The (-105) odds imply a 51.2% chance, so we are getting great value at this number. The Chiefs have allowed a tight end to eclipse this number in 4 of their last 5. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will draw plenty of attention from the Chiefs secondary, leaving Goedert to take advantage and cash this with one explosive play for us! Best of luck if you tail!
-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)
Best Super Bowl Bets
You can find boatloads of picks on the game, including against-the-spread picks, player props, and much more on Oddschecker. Click here for Super Bowl picks
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Article Authors
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.
Born and raised in St. Louis, JT is a young gun in the industry but has already established himself as one of the sharpest. Some refer to him as the "King of the Ice" as a result of his dominance in the NHL, which has been his claim to fame. However, he also excels in other markets including the NFL, MLB, and NCAAF. You can follow JT on Twitter at @RickyBobbyBets.
One of the best tennis cappers in the industry, Lear Locks will be providing OddsChecker readers with sharp tennis picks and analysis. You can follow him on Twitter at @LEARLOCKS.
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
Albert Nguyen is a native of Dallas, TX. He went to college in California and is currently a lawyer and consultant in the healthcare industry. Being an economics major, he's always been fascinated with numbers and statistics. He started creating his own projection models to handicap sports in the mid 2000s. He recently began working in the sports gambling industry and creating content as a side gig. He is an expert in numerous different sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Soccer, Tennis, Golf, and collegiate sports. You can follow Albert on Twitter at @AnalyticsCapper.