2023 Super Bowl Player Props: Hammer This Kadarius Toney Prop Pick

2023 Super Bowl Player Props: Hammer This Kadarius Toney Prop Pick

Lauded as the Tyreek Hill replacement, Kadarius Toney has had trouble finding his footing since the Chiefs acquired him back in October from the New York Giants for a compensatory 3rd-round pick and a 6th-round pick in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft. Kansas City fans were quick to jump for joy when their team acquired the former 1st-rounder out of Florida. Toney’s explosiveness and big play ability seemingly mimicked the game of the departed Tyreek Hill. However, not only has the second-year wide receiver struggled to stay on the field but he’s also struggled to produce when given reps. 

Super Bowl Start Time and Where to Watch: Eagles vs Chiefs

• Date: Sunday, February 12, 2022
• Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
• TV Coverage: FOX

Super Bowl Odds: Eagles vs Chiefs

• Moneyline: Eagles (-120), Chiefs (+105)
• Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-110), Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 50.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-103)

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Super Bowl Prop Pick: Eagles vs Chiefs

Toney’s numbers this season have been abysmal. After posting a 14-171-2 stat line during the regular season, Toney followed up with a 6-45-0 stat line in the playoffs and racked up yet another injury in the Chiefs' dramatic 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals nearly two weeks ago. Still, for some unknown reason, NFL analysts and fans alike cease to stop believing. Not me though. I see through the 1st round draft pick badge attached to Toney. The Giants reached when they picked him, as evidenced by the fact he is no longer even a member of a team with Richie James as their WR1 (I apologize to Richie for receiving an unnecessary stray).

With the emergence of Marques Valdes-Scantling (“MVS”), the favorable reports on the health of Juju and Hardman, the major target share and presence of Kelce, and Toney lacking the best ability in sports (if you know you know), the under seems like the obvious play. Hopeless believers will point to the fact that Toney can get 30 yards with one catch. I’ll counter with the fact the guy could pull his hamstring getting out of bed Sunday morning. 

Even putting the risk of injuries aside, the Eagles have arguably the best front seven in the NFL. I expect them to put constant pressure on Mahomes, who will often have to look to his checkdown guys, Kelce and Juju. If there is one weak part of the Eagles' defense, it is their play against the run. The emergence of Isiah Pacheco and the return of 2020 1st-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire will enable the Chiefs to get the run game going.

With all that said, on the game’s biggest stage, I have a hard time believing Mahomes will look to Toney often. One must question the chemistry (or lack thereof) the two built during the season. A midseason acquisition who missed numerous games and practices probably isn’t going to be the starting quarterback’s go-to guy. As a fan favorite, I expect the public to favor Toney’s over. Am I maybe a little bitter for spending my coveted FAB money on Toney in fantasy when the trade news broke? Perhaps. But this is about money. I am confident that this play will bring the units safely home. 

Eagles vs Chiefs Pick: Super Bowl 57

• KADARIUS TONEY UNDER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110) (Bet $100 to Collect $191) Best odds available at FanDuel, Click here to bet