Super Bowl 2023 Player Props: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets for Eagles vs. Chiefs
Super Bowl 2023 Player Props: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets for Eagles vs. Chiefs
Super Bowl Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: Sunday, February 12, 2022
- Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
- TV Coverage: FOX
Click here for Super Bowl Odds
We are at the final stop aboard the touchdown train! This NFL season has been a fantastic ride, and we cap it off with Super Bowl LVII. If you've been following my touchdown picks since the start of the season or are just joining, thank you! The NFL season has been incredible, and I'm already looking forward to September again! We have hit on 124 of 395 touchdown picks this season which is above a 31% clip. We've managed a profit along a rollercoaster ride of a season. We had weeks we hit over 17 units of profit (Week 2) and a dreaded week where we lost 14 units (Week 15). That's the name of the game in touchdown betting. All in all, we are up just about 4 units heading into the final game until September.
Two weeks of hype until the Super Bowl has had the spotlight on the quarterbacks, and for good reason. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts battled all season long for the MVP, and what better way to have the two top teams and quarterbacks this season square off in the Super Bowl? The Chiefs and Eagles were the top seeds in their respective conference, so what more can we ask for?
The Chiefs were +650 to win the Super Bowl when the odds were released last February, but they fell to +1100 entering the season in September, the longest odds they were at any point! When the regular season ended, the Chiefs were +340. The Chiefs are on track to be the first team since 2004 to enter the playoffs as the Super Bowl favorite and then be an underdog in the Super Bowl.
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While it's simple and obvious to say Travis Kelce will score in the Super Bowl, that's just no fun, and there isn't much value at -130 or worse at every sportsbook. All season long, I've stated how the analysis I've done will always support our anytime touchdown picks. We're not just throwing noodles at the wall and seeing if they stick! The Super Bowl is no different! Let's get to the best anytime touchdown picks for the Super Bowl! Best of luck if you tail!
Even better than my picks is the OddscheckerUS website compares odds from every sportsbook for every NFL game. This includes odds for anytime touchdown scorers, and we find where you can get the best price for your bet.
You can find TD scorer odds and all of the latest NFL odds by clicking here.
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Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets: Super Bowl 2023
A.J. Brown (+140) (Bet $100 to Collect $240) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet - Banker *2 Units*
One of the first things to consider about touchdown betting is the game script. If you handicap a team to blow the other side out, you can expect running backs to get plenty of work for the winning side and receivers for the losing side as they throw more to try to catch up. In the case of Super Bowl LVII, I don't have a specific feel for a side. If I were forced to choose, I would pick the underdog Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is 6-3 outright in his career and 7-1-1 Against the Spread (ATS) as an underdog!
Super Bowl 57 should play out to be an absolute slugfest. The Eagles may game plan to establish the run early, but no matter how good this Philadelphia defense is, I believe Patrick Mahomes will be able to put points on the board. This will force the Eagles to do the same. The Chiefs had the best offense in the league, while the Eagles were the No. 3 offense during the regular season by both DVOA and EPA per play. Both offenses ranked higher than both defenses. This game should be close, and both teams will be throwing the ball late into the fourth quarter.
I'm kicking it off with my favorite pick here. If you want to be the smartest person in the room at the Super Bowl party, you should also make this bet! Last season my best anytime touchdown bet of the Super Bowl was Odell Beckham Jr., and that cashed for us in the first quarter! Brown is coming off another down game in another blowout win that saw the Eagles throw the ball just 7 times in the second half. I expect a major bounceback this week for Brown, as I don't see the Eagles blowing out the Chiefs. Brown was tied with the third most touchdowns in the NFL this season! Brown has a team-high 46% of end zone targets; for context, tight end Dallas Goedert is at just 8% in this category. Brown is elite, and it will show why the Eagles traded for him during the draft back in April.
The Chiefs have struggled all season long on the perimeter defending true alpha receivers. To name a few that found the endzone this season against Kansas City; Mike Williams, Mike Evans (2), Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams (2), and Tee Higgins (2). The only two names comparable to Brown that did not score versus the Chiefs were Ja'Marr Chase (13 catches, 172 yards) and DK Metcalf (7 catches, 81 yards).
The Chiefs run a ton of man coverage, and Brown is one of a handful of matchup-proof receivers in the NFL. The Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season and tied for the second-most allowed to receivers. While vulnerable defending the slot all season, it appears the Chiefs have moved their top corner L'Jarius Sneed to the slot. Bankers went 6 for 11 this season, and this is a spot as good as any. The Super Bowl will show us AJBWR1 all day! I'm firing up Brown with confidence!
DeVonta Smith (+180) (Bet $100 to Collect $280) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
These odds are a bit disrespectful, given the usage and situation Smith finds himself in. For many of the same reasons, I love AJ Brown to find the endzone; I also believe Smith will follow suit. The Chiefs deploy two rookies at cornerback on the outside, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Whenever Brown or Smith are given one-on-one opportunities against them, I expect Jalen Hurts to dial them up. I mentioned Brown's massive 46% of end zone targets well, Smith isn't far behind on the team at 33%.
The Eagles have been ahead on a league-high 56% of offensive snaps this season! That has led to a lot of run plays. In fact, a league-high 64% run plays in the 4th quarter, but otherwise, the Eagles are a pass-first offense. They were the 10th pass-heaviest team in the NFL during the first three quarters this season. This goes back to the game script I mentioned at the opening. If the Chiefs keep this game competitive, which I'm betting they do, the Eagles pass catchers will be busy.
Smith has had 8 or more targets in 10 of his last 11 games, including double-digit targets in three of them! I anticipate the two Eagles stud wideouts to have one-on-one chances on vertical shots and even quick slants when the Chiefs bring pressure and will give Brown and Smith great opportunities to run after the catch. I'm firing up both WR1A and WR1B with confidence in Super Bowl LVII!
Dallas Goedert (+190) (Bet $100 to Collect $290) Click here for the best odds, available at BetRivers
The Chiefs allowed touchdowns on 5.3% of passes and 36.4 pass attempts per game and allowed the second-most scores to slot receivers this season. With the Chiefs often in two-high coverage, the middle of the field can be occupied by Goedert with zone beaters. The Eagles are likely to lean on the run game early and often, which will force the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to put more bodies in the box, which will open up the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts to connect with Goedert. The Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. The fourth-most to tight ends! Goedert led all Eagles pass catchers with 47% of the targets out of play-action. The Chiefs have allowed a 90% catch rate to tight ends over the last 6 games, and Goedert led all tight ends this season in yards after the catch! For many of these reasons, I also have Goedert as my best bet as part of our Staff's Best Bets for the Super Bowl!
Kadarius Toney (+340) (Bet $100 to Collect $440) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
The Eagles defense allowed the fourth most yards per carry after contact and allowed 5.77 yards per carry on perimeter runs. Deebo Samuel and Toney have many of the same qualities. Andy Reid has deployed Toney in a similar fashion as he proved he can produce as a runner when he rushed 3 times for 26 yards and a score back in Week 18. Mahomes will look to get rid of the ball quickly to reduce pressure and protect his ankle. I believe in Toney's talent, and there's no denying he is a highlight reel. He is an electric dual-threat weapon. Andy Reid said Toney has done everything on the practice field. Mecole Hardman is out, and the Chiefs clearly want to get the ball in Toney's hands. He has an insane 28% target rate per route run, the highest of any Chiefs receiver. Last year a former Giants wide receiver scored in the Super Bowl (OBJ), so why not make it back-to-back Super Bowls? I'm confident in Toney's talent to stand out and for him to find the pay dirt!
JuJu Smith-Schuster (+340) (Bet $100 to Collect $440) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
I was considering Skyy Moore here as a longshot, but I'm banking on the reports that JuJu is healthy enough to run his usual number of routes in the Super Bowl. JuJu has seen a significant dip in targets in the second half of the season, but running the majority of his routes from the slot leads me to believe the opportunities will return for him in the final game. As I mentioned with our Toney pick, Mahomes will likely look to get the ball out quickly, and the Eagles will likely scheme to slow down Travis Kelce. This will open up things for JuJu out of the slot where he runs the majority of his routes. The Eagles secondary has been excellent, slowing down perimeter receivers but has struggled versus the slot. The Eagles allowed the ninth most yards to slot receivers, and 7 of the 16 touchdowns to receivers came from the slot this season. Just like the Toney reports suggest, JuJu is a full-go for the Super Bowl. He led the Chiefs receivers in targets this season, and with his aDOT falling, I'm confident Mahomes will be looking his way early and often. JuJu also has a contract incentive to win the Super Bowl and play over 50% of snaps for an extra million dollars. I'm expecting him to show up on the big stage.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+800) (Bet $100 to Collect $900) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel - .5 Unit
This is my longshot pick for Super Bowl LVII. This is arguably my biggest "gut play" of the season. He hasn't suited up since Week 11, when he suffered a high-ankle injury, but reports out of the Chiefs practices have been strong. There is still a chance he is inactive at this point, in that case, the bet will be voided. With a name that resembles the Clydesdale horses in the Budweiser commercial we've been seeing for decades, I can't help myself.
We're sprinkling a half unit for multiple reasons. Isiah Pacheco has looked great over the last two months, and Jerick McKinnon is also a threat, but he has been dealing with an ankle issue. It remains to be seen how touches will be distributed with CEH returning. Following the Chiefs bye week, CEH began to lose snaps and touches to both Pacheco and McKinnon. Before that, he had scored in 4 of 7 games. He has Super Bowl experience, and Andy Reid loves deploying all of his weapons. CEH's 17.7% targets per route run closely resemble McKinnon's 19.1%, and CEH was a top 10 running back in terms of screen pass efficiency. I expect McKinnon to be in on third downs to help block against the Eagles vaunted pass rush, and CEH will cut into the early down work. The Eagles allowed middle-of-the-pack production to running backs this season on paper, but because they were leading for the majority of their games, the numbers don't tell the true story. With so many playmakers on the Chiefs it's worth taking shots down the board here for value. Let's hope CEH shows out like the Budweiser Clydesdale horses!
Anytime TD Picks: Super Bowl 2023
- A.J. Brown (+140) (Bet $100 to Collect $240) Click here for the best odds, available at PointsBet - Banker *2 Units*
- DeVonta Smith (+180) (Bet $100 to Collect $280) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
- Dallas Goedert (+190) (Bet $100 to Collect $290) Click here for the best odds, available at BetRivers
- Kadarius Toney (+340) (Bet $100 to Collect $440) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (+340) (Bet $100 to Collect $440) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+800) (Bet $100 to Collect $900) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel - .5 Unit
Best Super Bowl Bets
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Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.