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We are just five hours away from the 2023 Super Bowl! NFL expert and handicapper Lightning Locks is here to break down his best prediction, pick, and odds ahead of today's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs.
ANALYSIS

2023 Super Bowl Scoring Props: Lock in This Plus-Money Exotic Prop Pick

Super Bowl Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, February 12, 2023
  • Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

Super Bowl Odds

  • Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-110), Chiefs +1.5 (-109)
  • Total: Over 51 (+100), Under 51 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Eagles (-118), Chiefs (+105)

Click here for the latest Super Bowl odds

Super Bowl Prediction

We have a prop here today that comes down to one thing: do you think this Super Bowl will be a blowout or not? The line says it won't be because it's one of the shortest lines we have ever seen in the Super Bowl. If this were Chargers and 49ers and a double-digit spread, we wouldn't like this prop at all. If this were the Rams and the Patriots, we would be all over it because they only had three scores and we expected a game like that.

We see this Super Bowl like last year's, where it was a very tight and entertaining 23-20 Rams Super Bowl win over the Bengals. Who doesn't like an entertaining Super Bowl?

Last year this prop would have lost as the Bengals scored three times in a row to go from being down to up in the game. However, this year we see this as a back-and-forth game. I wouldn't be shocked if it went down to a final play. The Eagles can score and will score, but this is the best opponent they have played. It's hard to score three times in a row because that means you shut out Mahomes three times in a row, or there was a pick 6.

The Chiefs Tommy Townsend punted 53 times this year through 17 games, an average of a little over four a game. He also logged eight punts in two playoff games, showing he is very consistent in completing four punts a game. The Eagles activated their injured punter for the Super Bowl: Arryn Siposs. He only had 44 punts but did miss the last three games, totaling 13 games this year. Siposs averages about 3.4 punts a game. So, as you see both teams are averaging very few punts a game.

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There are always interceptions, but they combine for only 18. An interception for a touchdown doesn't happen that often, especially not in the Super Bowl. Helping our argument is also a chance at a missed field goal as Butker missed six and Elliott missed three. Elliot also doesn't usually kick long ones.

Here's the bottom line: the Chiefs are the No. one offense this year and the Eagles are the No. three offense this year. Both offenses are better than the defenses and both teams will have to score to win. The Eagles score running the ball while the No. 1 passing offense is how KC scores. We can't see a team scoring three times in a row against the other.

Let's take the plus money prop as we take no team to score three unanswered times at +155 available at Fanduel in the scoring props section. Remember extra points or 2-point conversions don't count, so it has to be three actual scores in a row for this prop to lose. If this game isn't a blowout, which it shouldn't be, and there aren't a bunch of turnovers, we will win this. Let's all enjoy a tight game and + money cash out after.

Super Bowl Pick

Super Bowl Picks

You can find plenty of picks on the Super Bowl, including against-the-spread picks, player props, halftime props, and much more here on OddsChecker. Click here for Super Bowl picks.

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