WGC Mexico Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

Our golf expert has two picks for this week's WGC Mexico Championship.

Niall Lyons
Tue, February 18, 4:57 PM

 

The Pick: (5u) - Rory McIlroy @ +650

We move to Mexico and the altitude of Chapultepec for the next WGC and this promises to be a classic. A lot has been written and talked about a European style golf course, similar to Crans where the same credentials translate well to the golf course. Bello, Hatton, Fleetwood and Fisher have figured here over the last handful of renewals at this track so it is worth noting for sure. Mickelson and Dustin have obliged in getting into the winners enclosure though and it's important not to take our eye of the worlds best. The tree lined track could lure you into backing a few of the typical sorts who play well on these types of tracks for example Garcia and Fitzpatrick, however I believe that power hitting is in fact rewarded here despite some stats that would tell you different. I saw plenty of drivers in use last year and a few greens attacked from the tee with those with the power to do so. I believe this approach gave the bombers an advantage to make more birdies than the rest and a fair opportunity to win as opposed to place. A 1-2 of Dustin and Rory last year separated first and third by 10 shots. Mickelson, Thomas and Cabrera-Bello took up three of the top four spots in 2018. Dustin obliged again in 2017 so I think it's foolish to dismiss a power game as having a distinct advantage around here.

 

The time has come to weigh in on the Irishman. RORY MCILROY (+650) would have pushed Scott the whole way on Sunday if it wasn't for one glaring error on day four. He played himself out of contention on one whole yet still only ended up 3 back of an imperious Scott. He has started off 2020 even more impressively than 2019 and he achieved a lot last year. This year looks set for bigger and better things and it'd be a brave man to bet against him adding to his major haul this season. 3rd at Torrey and 5th at Riviera are to impressive results on extremely tough layouts and he will get a bit of rest bite here in Mexico with plenty of birdies on offer. He has played well at altitude before with a couple of play off defeats in Crans which is further proof to his ability around here. 30 under par here for his last 8 rounds is a super total and I can only see another big number being added to that tally. The one negative here is that this is another venue that tests golfers from 3 and 4 feet and we have to hope that Rory doesn't succumb to the pressure on those tiddlers at the weekend. Dustin Johnson was the only golfer ahead of him last year and I still maintain he is nowhere near his best. Despite some nice stuff and only being one stroke off the lead early on day four the best he could manage was a 10th place. That is where he's at right now and despite his record here I think the market is pricing him too short for someone who now hasn't won in a year. With a missed cut from Thomas last week and an average effort by Rahm I think Rory holds all the aces here and will be very hard to beat.

 

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