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The Masters is just a week away and our expert golf 'capper Sam Eaton finds the early value in the betting market

2021 Masters Picks & Predictions: It Could Be Paul Casey's Time

The best period of sport in the world is going on right now, with March Madness, the MLB season and Masters all coinciding. There are plenty of sub-plots to get excited about with the 2021 Masters, including:

  • Jordan Spieth’s return to form
  • Will Brooks Koepka play?
  • Rory McIlroy out of form
  • Bryson DeChambeau’s NFT trading cards

Anyway, when you look at the 2021 Masters odds market it’s pretty tricky to make a bet at the top of the market, as there’s six players under +2000. For me, I wouldn’t be touching Rory McIlroy or Jordan Spieth at those prices. If I was to play in this area of the betting, I’d be looking at going all in on Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm.

Brooks Koepka will be an interesting one, if he’s fit he represents a bit of value but always a risk with that dodgy right knee.

One thing that doesn’t make a great deal of sense to me in the 2021 Masters odds market is the price of Xander Schauffele compared to Collin Morikawa and Patrick Reed. If you are betting win only, you’re crazy to take Xander at +2200, compared to Morikawa at +2800 or Reed at +3300. Admittedly, I’d feel more comfortable taking Schauffele in the top 10 betting market, but his win equity doesn’t warrant his odds to be so short.

Anyway, below you’ll find my 2021 Masters predictions and early leans.

Paul Casey +4000 (Click To Bet)

I seem to come round to Paul Casey every Masters, and this year was going to be no different. Paul Casey comes into the Major as one of the form players, with four top ten finishes in his last four PGA Tour events.

More importantly, Paul Casey has got his putter working, he’s averaged 1.6 shots on the field in his last five PGA Tour events.

The Englishman finished T38 last year, but has recorded three top six finishes at the Masters in recent history.

Casey has been one of the top players in the field in terms of approach, scrambling and greens in regulation in the past three months, all key assets needed in this field.

Joaquin Niemann +6000 (Click To Bet)

Joaquin Niemann is my second 2021 Masters pick, as I believe he now has all the right assets to perform at this course.

Given his stature, Niemann’s driving distance comes somewhat as a surprise, but he’s among the top players in the field over the last six months. Niemann also has the approach game to match-it.

One thing I really like Niemann is his mentality, he doesn’t seem to get phased by much, which was very apparent when winning the Greenbrier. He’s already recorded two 2nd place finishes in 2021, so comes into the event playing well.

Viktor Hovland +3300 (Click To Bet)

If you are looking at the stats needed for the Masters, it’s pretty hard to ignore Viktor Hovland when it comes to Masters picks.

Hovland missed the cut at the Players last time out, but has been relatively consistent in 2021, with two second place finishes and a 5th at the Genesis. Hovland’s consistency has let him down in the recent months, with one or two holes really hurting him.

However, in the last two months, Viktor Hovland ranks in the top ten of this field in terms of shots gained off the tee, shots gained approach and shots gained on par 5’s.

Masters Picks & Predictions: Find Me A 100/1+ Winner

Obviously a 100/1+ winner is unlikely at the Masters, but we’ve seen long-shots return a lot of money in the each-way betting markets (with sportsbooks like bet365 who offer the market). If you were looking to wager a wildcard in the Masters, I’d be looking to take a risk on Dylan Frittelli who finished T5 last year, and performs well on these course that demand more power off the tee.

Another player to wager at 100/1+ is Lanto Griffin, who ranks well in the last two months in terms of shots gained off the tee, approach, driving distance and putting. He gains shots off the tee and is putting very well. Well worth chancing at +25000.

Masters Picks & Predictions: Prop Bets

The sportsbooks have yet to give odds for the Masters prop markets, but depending on the odds my early leans would be to back the following players in the top 10 betting markets:

Dylan Frittelli

Sergio Garcia

The following in the top 20 betting markets:

Max Homa

Lanto Griffin

Will Zalatoris

2021 Masters Predictions: What Online Bettors Are Predicting

Looking at betting patterns from the Masters odds markets is always interesting heading to the big competition. This year to date the most wagered player in the Masters odds market has been Lee Westwood. The Englishman has been in fine form this year, and has accounted for 9.8% of bets in the Masters market, despite his odds being set at +5000.

Jordan Spieth is another player hitting form at just the right time, and he’s been the second most wagered player in the market, accounting for 8.5% of all Masters bets in 2021.

Golfer% Of Bets in 2021
Lee Westwood9.8%
Jordan Spieth8.5%
Dustin Johnson5.2%
Justin Thomas3.9%
Bryson DeChambeau3.6%
Cameron Smith3.5%
Viktor Hovland3%

2021 Masters Odds

GolferOdds Implied Percentage Chance Of Winning
Dustin Johnson+8009.8%
Bryson DeChambeau+10008.5%
Justin Thomas+11005.2%
Jon Rahm+12003.9%
Jordan Spieth+14003.6%
Rory McIlroy+16003.5%
Patrick Cantlay+22003%

See the full odds market here.


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