U.S. Open Day 1 Picks: 3-Ball Predictions & First Round Leader Bets

We take a look at the best prop bets on day one of the U.S. Open
Tom Dodd
Wed, June 16, 8:06 AM EDT

US Open Day 1 Predictions

There’s been a huge amount of build-up ahead of the 2021 US Open with major talking points around the betting favorite Jon Rahm, the fued between Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau and the dreamers among us waiting to see if Phil Mickelson can finally win the career grand slam after his incredible PGA Championship win last month.

The talking is now about to stop as we’re just a day away from the opening shots being hit. We can only assume you’ve got all of your outright bets placed by now (if not, make sure to watch Geoff Fienberg’s preview HERE) and it’s now time to get your bets on for Thursday’s action.

The beauty of the opening day of a golf tournament is that not only can you wager on the day 1 3-balls and parlay them up, but you can also place your first round leader bets! We take a look at the best bets in both of these markets here in our betting guide.

US Open Day 1: 3-Ball Picks

10.29 am ET: Francesco Molinari vs. Henrik Stenson vs. Shane Lowry

The first US Open pick in the Thursday 3-balls goes the way of Shane Lowry to beat Henrik Stenson and Francesco Molinari. Not only is the Irishman going up against two of the more out of form players on the Tour at the moment, there’s plenty of like about his own chances of playing well this week.  In his last two starts, he’s finished 4th at the PGA Championship and 6th at Memorial – Kiawah and Muirfield are two of the hardest courses on the PGA Tour. The tough test of Torrey Pines will hold no fears for the big-hitter. On top of that, Lowry has been starting fast recently, ending round one in the top 11 in four of his last seven starts.

Pick: Shane Lowry @ -125

View the odds for this market here.

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4.36pm ET: Dustin Johnson vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Justin Rose

You might not have seen this one coming, but the next US Open prediction comes in the shape of Justin Rose upsetting the two biggest names on the Tour. I really like the chances of the Englishman to defeat Rory and DJ tomorrow. Firstly, there’s negatives around both Johnson (recent form and concerning putting performance at the Palmetto Championship) and McIlroy (historically starts badly in round 1 in majors) and plenty of positives around Rose. Not only does Justin Rose have a great record at Torrey Pines, he was a winner here in 2019, but he also has a good record of fast starts in majors. You only have to look back at the Masters this year, where he led after a stunning first round 65. He’s the value play here at +260.

Pick: Justin Rose @ +260

View the odds for this market here.

10.40am ET: Billy Horschel vs. Matt Kuchar vs. Kevin Kisner

Sometimes you just need to keep it simple when making your US Open picks! And this is one of those times. Back the player in form versus two players that aren’t and that don’t have the game to suit this course. Billy Horschel won his first WGC event earlier in the year which has put him in contention for a Ryder Cup spot and the American boasts two top 10 finishes in past trips to Torrey Pines at the Farmers Championship. Kuchar and Kisner have both had very poor 2021 seasons and neither have any noteworthy past success at Torrey being shorter hitters. Back Billy.

Pick: Billy Horschel @ +140

View the odds for this market here.

US Open Picks: Day 1 3-Ball Parlay

If you like the sound of the three US Open picks above for the 3-ball markets, why not parlay them up? By doing this, you'll need all 3 of them to win, but the odds will be big! Using our parlay calculator you can see that a wager on all of the above to win would equal total odds of just over 14.5/1!

A $10 wager on our US Open picks for the first round 3-balls would win you $155.52. Time to tail?

US Open Day 1 Picks: First Round Leader Predictions

When it comes to first round leader picks, there’s no handicapper better than our golf expert Sam Eaton. If you’re a follower of Sam on Twitter, you’ll know that his first round leader picks have yielded a huge profit over the past two seasons. You’ll be able to find all of his US Open picks on his Twitter account, but we’ve also got the first round leader predictions listed below. 

Collin Morikawa @ 40/1

Jason Kokrak @ 60/1

Sam Burns @ 85/1

Rory McIlroy @ 33/1

Scottie Scheffler @ 55/1

Find the first round leader betting market here.

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