BMW Championship Daily Fantasy Picks & Predictions: Riding Jon Rahm's Hot Hand
After an extended stay in New Jersey for The Northern Trust, we quickly head South down I-95 to Baltimore for the BMW Championship held at Caves Valley Golf Club. We arrive at a course hosting their first ever PGA Tour event on a short-prep week for much of the field. I tend to look at these types of weeks as advantageous if you put in the time and work to understand the course. With only 70 players in the field for the 2nd leg of the Fedex Cup Playoffs, everyone playing is either a stud or coming in with great form.
I’m looking to try and isolate what metrics and player traits will lead to success at Caves Valley. Since we have never seen an event here, I start by trying to find like courses which I think we can utilize as solid comps. The one that immediately jumps off the page is Quail Hollow which hosts the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow is perhaps the crown-jewel on tour for Course designer Tom Fazio who also crafted Caves Valley. The courses are similar in length and green size as well. I also liken it Augusta National. We will see some severe elevation changes from tee boxes and undulations on the greens that have become so familiar at Augusta. Fazio’s work at Augusta often goes overlooked, as he has redesigned all but four holes at the world’s most famous golf course that was the original work of Alister Mackenzie and Bobby Jones.
So, what tends to dominate at both Quail Hollow and Augusta? For one, distance. The ability to gain strokes Off the Tee has a strong correlation to success and the further you hit it, the better. I’m also targeting Par 5 scoring, particularly from 550-600 yards. I’ve seen some discrepancies early in the week with scorecards but at this point it appears all four par 5’s will play in this range. Other key stats I am looking at are SG: Putting (bent grass), short term Ball Striking/Approach, and Greens in Reg.
Without further ado, here come the picks!
BMW Championship Daily Fantasy Picks & Predictions
$10,000+ Range: Jon Rahm @ $11,700
He’s well worth the price of admission. I rarely ever spring for the highest priced player but Rahm is on another level right now. He’s averaged +10.6 Strokes Gained on the field over his last 5 events, and that doesn’t include The Memorial he was steamrolling before being forced to WD. Most sportsbooks have him at +650 and the next player in the field at +1600. Pay the extra $1,000 and enjoy the top 3 finish.
$9,000 Range: Bryson DeChambeau @ $9,300
I’m certain this stack will be popular. That said, I’m a little different when it comes to DFS strategy as I don’t overly accommodate for ownership. Bryson is the best in the field Off the Tee in the last 24 rounds and has been equally as good at Par 5 scoring. His iron play and approach game over the last 2 events have been his best stretch since March. If he putts well, I expect him on the leaderboard late.
$8,000 Range: Paul Casey @ $8,200
Bargain pricing for PC here. It could have something to do with a disappointing 64th place finish at the Northern Trust. That said, he gained strokes on Approach all 4 days and lost on putting all 4 days. Bent grass greens are his best surface so a bounce back with the putter seems in play. The iron play has been great lately and he seems to always play well at my two main comps of Quail Hollow and Augusta.
$7,000 Range: Jhonattan Vegas @ $7,100
Another one that feels chalky but simply way too cheap. Vegas is top 10 in recent SG: Tee to Green, Off the Tee, Ball Striking, Driving Distance, and Greens in Regulation. Big Fella loves himself some Tom Fazio courses, and he just doesn’t deserve to be priced in the bottom 1/3 of the field. He rated out #2 overall in my combined stat model so give me all the Vegas Chalk!
$6,000 Range: Keith Mitchell @ $6,500
What a ridiculous finish last week for Mitchell as he went birdie, birdie, birdie to get himself into the field. He’s striking the ball great, and I have to believe the confidence is riding high after that finish. He’s top 10 in SG: Off the Tee and Driving Distance. Mitchell also played alongside Rory in the final pairing at the Wells Fargo earlier this season.
Good luck friends and let’s finish out the season strong!
BMW Championship Daily Fantasy Picks
Jon Rahm @ $11,700
Bryson DeChambeau @ $9,300
Paul Casey @ $8,200
Jhonattan Vegas @ $7,100
Keith Mitchell @ $6,500