Tour Championship Daily Fantasy Picks & Predictions: Playing Cam Smith at the Top
We’ve made it! The Tour Championship is here and its finally time to put a bow on the biggest PGA Tour Season since 1975. 50 tournaments and 6 Major’s later, we arrive back at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA where the top 30 (maybe 29) will duel it out via the staggered start format. I’ve been adamantly against the format since it was enacted in 2019, but we have to play the hand in which we are dealt.
We go from the scoring fest we saw last week at Caves Valley to East Lake which typically plays as one of the tougher stops every year. East Lake is a great and complete examination of a player with several lengthy par 4’s and par 3’s that require exceptional ball striking. Xander Schauffele has been the best player in the field over the last two years with a combined raw strokes score of -25.
It’s certainly important to understand the starting strokes as they will have an impact of your finishing position scoring. This is one of the weeks where I will put a heavier emphasis on player ownership percentage to get some leverage in such a small field. As of Tuesday morning, we still are not sure if Patrick Reed is going to play, but he has a tee time off first on Thursday morning so that is something to monitor. This also may be a great week to leave some money on the table. I don’t mind leaving $400-$1000 on the table if playing a large format GPP tournament to have a unique lineup.
Tour Championship Daily Fantasy Picks & Predictions
$10,000+ Range: Cameron Smith @ $10,100
So many options here with Cantlay and Rahm clearing $13,000! I think the total contrarian play this week is to start with none other than Cam Smith. His most recent form is 2nd only to Rahm. He’s incredible around the greens and comes into East Lake with a red-hot putter. The biggest thing for me is the savings and leverage you get by starting here with Smith as he begins the week 5 strokes off the lead with 72 holes to make it up. It’s doable.
$9,000 Range: Rory McIlroy @ $9,300
Rory feasts at East Lake. He won the 2019 edition by firing the lowest total score over 4 days and he also took down the Fedex Cup that year with starting strokes. He played much better last week at the BMW Championship and we know that he has the ability to charge up the leaderboard. Only two choices in the 9 range this week, I think Rory is the better course fit and has a higher upside.
$8,000 Range: Sam Burns @ $8,500
I’m going to play close attention to the projections as the week moves along but I feel like he’s going to come in less owned than Xander. Burns is on the cusp of Ryder Cup possibilities if he shows up and plays well….again! He’s hitting the driver great which can often overshadow his short game which is the best in the field over the last 12 rounds.
$7,000 Range: Brooks Koepka @ $7,800
Everyone is going to play Sungjae. I’m taking Brooks. This is the reason you save the money up top so you can take a proven big-time event Winner for a minimal price bump. He’s disappointed in back-to-back weeks, but he’s hitting the ball great off the tee. Brooks is bleeding strokes around the green and with his putter lately which is usually the time to play him at a discount.
$6,000 Range: Corey Connors @ $6,200
Pretty simple here for me. East Lake is a Ball Strikers course and I don’t think many people will play him with Berger underneath and rock bottom EVR. Connors was flushing it at the Northern Trust and I have always been more inclined to play him when par is a good score vs. the birdie fest we saw at the BMW.
Thanks for riding with me this season! Good luck!