The CJ Cup Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Building Off Justin Thomas
The CJ Cup Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Building Off Justin Thomas
The PGA Tour continues their residence in Las Vegas this week as they shift over to The Summit Club, which will play host to the CJ Cup. We’re back with another “No-Cut” event, and the field that has booked a flight through McCarran for this week’s tournament is substantially stronger. The guaranteed payday with another 2.75 million in the pot has drawn the attention of many of the top players in the world.
The new wrinkle in the course. The Summit Club is a private course just off the strip that has only been around for four years now. The Tom Fazio design features wider than average fairways bordered by the desert. The Greens are also large in size, Bentgrass, and come with the signature Fazio touch (heavy undulations). Given the yardage is only 7,400 yards at elevation, and we get the full complement of par 5’s, I see nothing besides a windstorm that keeps the scoring at bay.
How long is too long to be in Las Vegas? For me, once you start hearing the chime of the slot machines within the few hours of sleep you can manage, it’s about time to go home. That said, most of the top players who teed it up in the Shriners will tough it out for another payday, although the freshness could be of concern. Since several uncertainties are surrounding the course setup, I’ll lean primarily on “gut” plays versus relying on only stats. I am interested in performance at Caves Valley and Congaree which I make decent comps based on the Fazio-ties. Some of the stats I will factor into my model are recent Ballstriking numbers, Birdie-or-Better rates, Opportunities Gained, and Par 5 scoring.
10k+ Range: Justin Thomas $11,100
This week, Thomas makes an excellent leverage play as I don’t believe many will pay up from Morikawa(home course narrative) and Schauffele(No-Cut narrative). He’s always a bit inaccurate off the tee, but I think the forgiving nature of the fairways will greatly benefit him. What really turned around late in the season was the irons returned to an elite level. Since August, he’s gained an average of 4 strokes on Approach in his last four events. We have seen the Ryder-cup rust have a real effect on many players, but with two previous wins at the CJ Cup, Thomas understands the magnitude of starting the season off hot!
9k Range: Viktor Hovland $9,900
I’m pushing the chips “All-In” on Hovland! A strange week of sorts at the Shriners for Vik, but a closer look has me quite optimistic. The Ballstriking numbers were incredible, as has become the norm for Hovland, but he somehow managed to lose almost 9 strokes Around the Green! Tough to imagine. That said, given the larger-than-average greens and his ability to basically paint flagsticks with his irons, I think this makes a natural spot to back him again.
8k Range: Tyrrell Hatton $8,400
After a gutty performance in Wisconsin and a 2nd place finish last week at the Alfred Dunhill Links, it would appear a return to form is imminent for the fiery Hatton. He posted his two best performances of the season last year on Tom Fazio-designed courses. First at the previous CJ Cup, which was played at Shadow Creek, and the second at Congaree. It’s been a busy couple of weeks with the passport for Tyrrell, but I’m inclined to play him once again here.
7k Range: Maverick McNealy $7,300
Much will be made of The Summit Club member in Collin Morikawa. But the other resident PGA Tour card-carrying member is McNealy, who has made Vegas his home base and has posted a 61 on this course. He typically shines on shorter golf courses, even though he has plenty of length off the tee. So I’m willing to overlook a poor performance last week and hope he can rekindle some of the confidence and swagger he carried through about 68 holes of the Fortinet a few weeks ago.
6k Range: Rasmus Hojgaard $6,100
Bottom feeding here, which always incurs some risk. That said, I think he poses enough upside, particularly in the no-cut format that could free him up to focus on scoring. In addition, Hojgaard was voted European Tour Player of the Month only back in August after notching his 3rd victory at the Omega European Masters. Plus, I believe he may be the only player in the field too young to “legally” drink which could lead to a massive advantage in Strokes-Gained: Not Hungover…fingers crossed.
Good luck, friends, go cash!
Cuts Made: 49/55
Winners Picked: 3