Not many things in sports are quite as rare or as rewarding as hitting on a longshot bet in golf.
For me, getting out of a bunker on fewer than three swings is both extremely rare and very rewarding. For the New York Jets, winning a single game is quite rare and rewarding. For Brooks Koepka, not rolling his eyes whenever he sees Bryson DeChambeau is both rare and rewa...well...it's definitely rare.
A longshot winning a PGA Tournament is far from an uncommon occurrence. During the 2020-21 PGA season, HALF of the tournaments were won by a golfer with 50-1 odds or longer. Half.
What is an uncommon occurrence is us bettors hitting on those longshots. That is exactly why we've enlisted some of the sport's top handicappers to give us their favorite longshot bets every week -- so we can hit it big.
This week, our experts will tackle the 2021 Bermuda Championship. Let's go hit some big ones!
2021 Bermuda Championship Longshot Picks
Rick Gehman: Brian Stuard (+9000)
There are only four or five courses each year that really fit the skill-set of Brian Stuard and Port Royal GC is one of them. At only 6,800 yards, this is one of the shorter courses on TOUR but it requires you to be accurate off-the-tee. Stuard has hit over 75% of fairways in his last 50 rounds, the best rate of anyone on TOUR. That gives him a solid foundation and a chance to compete this week.
-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)
Geoff Fienberg: Ryan Armour (+5500)
I came into the week with Armour on my mind, and I must admit, I was hoping to find a better number than 55/1 -- but the books are keenly aware of how well this short par 71 Bermuda grass layout suits a player like Armour. In the two previous editions on this course, we've seen a fairway finder and hot putter (Brian Gay, Brendon Todd) win, and Armour fits the bill for me this week. While many people will be flocking to the young Korn Ferry grads excited to predict a breakthrough victory, I'm still of the belief that this course will reward the crafty veterans.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Joe Idone: Denny McCarthy (+5000)
It's mind-boggling that the best putter on the planet for the last three years has failed to piece together the other parts of his game for one week to get a PGA Tour win. That changes this week! Denny loves The Bermuda Championship, with a 15th place finish in his debut followed up by a 4th place finish last year. If he is able to gain a few strokes Off The Tee (has gained in his last three starts) and just have a baseline putting week, he should find himself firmly in contention for win number one.
-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)
Tom Jacobs: Brian Gay (+10000)
Brian Gay was an early lean in my initial preview of the Bermuda Championship and his opening odds have only encouraged me further. While he may not have got on the first flight out to Bermuda this week, Gay seems to know this course better than most, playing here twice and posting results of third and first.
It’s not often a longshot has only been beaten by two people across two renewals of an event, and Brian Gay can keep the record going strong here in Bermuda. He can only realistically win at a few courses now on the PGA Tour, but this is one of them, so his lack of current form does not concern me. He had missed four straight cuts heading into this event last year and won, and we know he repeats performances.
At 100/1 (or bigger if available), he is a good bet in a very weak field.
-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)
Sam Eaton: Adam Hadwin, First Round Leader (+4000)
Port Royal Golf Course gives shorter hitters a much more even playing field compared to other courses on the PGA Tour, which was highlighted by Brian Gay (2020 winner) and Brendon Todd (2019). The course rewards players who find the fairway, have good short iron skills, and can take advantage of the par 5’s.
Adam Hadwin often loses shots of the tee, but normally ranks well when it comes to driving accuracy. His approach game, around the green, and putting were also in good working order at Shriners.
I’m tempted with Hadwin in the win market, however, Hadwin, like a few other Canadians. is somewhat of a first-round specialist. He has two top first-round finishes to his name in his last three events but hasn’t finished in the top 40 after four days in either event.
The wind looks brutal if you draw morning or afternoon, so there’s not too much benefit there. Hadwin’s game normally stays together in tricky conditions.
-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)