Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Bets
Not many things in sports are quite as rare or as rewarding as hitting on a longshot bet in golf.
For me, getting out of a bunker on fewer than three swings is both extremely rare and very rewarding. For the New York Jets, winning a single game is quite rare and rewarding. For Brooks Koepka, not rolling his eyes whenever he sees Bryson DeChambeau is both rare and rewa...well...it's definitely rare.
A longshot winning a PGA Tournament is far from an uncommon occurrence. During the 2020-21 PGA season, HALF of the tournaments were won by a golfer with 50-1 odds or longer. Half.
What is an uncommon occurrence is us bettors hitting on those longshots. That is exactly why we've enlisted some of the sport's top handicappers to give us their favorite longshot bets every week -- so we can hit it big.
As a rule, we'll aim for players with odds 50/1 or longer.
This week, our experts will tackle the 2021 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open. Let's go hit some big ones!
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open Expert Longshot Picks
Rick Gehman: Russell Henley (+5000)
Memorial Park will challenge these golfers as a long Par-70, stretching around 7,400 yards. Believe it or not, this has been the area that Henley has thrived in during his career. On Par-70s over 7,250 yards, Henley is gaining 1.31 strokes per round, the most of anyone with at least 50 rounds. That's 13 events and he's never lost strokes to the field in those starts.
-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)
Geoff Fienberg: Jason Kokrak (+5500)
This doesn't quite feel "longshot" enough for a collab article asking for longshots. I'll probably be using my space here on the regular trying to find you a winner 100/1+, but I also don't want to fake it, since I have no pending bets like that this week. In fact, Jason Kokrak at 55/1 appears to be the longest bet I have this week. So why Kokrak? He checks all the boxes for me on this Texas track that has an ability to be quite demanding, and I wouldn't underestimate how long it can play. Check out the event preview from Rick Gehman and me here -- we both had nice things to say about Kokrak's ability to be a Sunday Hero this week.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Sam Eaton: Seamus Power (+5500)
Seamus Power is on a hot streak on the PGA Tour. The Irishman has back-to-back top-15 finishes and he recorded three top-10 finishes in July, including winning the Barbasol. The Houston Open is a hard competition now that it’s moved to the Memorial Park Golf Course, and will be a big test for this week’s field. Off the tee will play an important role this week, which might lead you to ask why Seamus Power is my long-shot… Well, Power isn’t one of the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour but is one of the more accurate. His success has been built off a solid tee to green game, and he is in the top-10 in this field when it comes to par 5 scoring, shots gained around the green, and Prox: 125-150, all vital stats for this week’s PGA Tour event.
-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)
Tom Jacobs: Max Homa (+6000)
I was tempted to include James Hahn in this area, who I picked at triple-digits previously, but Max Homa is my favorite bet this week and qualifies at over 50/1. He has form at all the correlating courses I identified in my outright preview, and he’s won three times since the start of 2019, something not many in this field can say. His odds are what they are due to his volatility, but coming off the mini-break, and returning to a course that suits his game, I think he’s a great bet.
-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)
Joe Idone: Mito Pereira (+8000)
I've been waiting all Fall for the floor price to drop on Mito and after one missed cut...here we are at 80/1! After his promotion to the PGA Tour this summer, he has done nothing but impress. He's quickly been able to threaten contention in three subsequent PGA Tour events and finished T4 at The Olympics. Pereira seemingly possesses all the tools from T2G with his finishing position being closely tied whether or not he putts well that week. Those are the players who will eventually make you money betting the longshots!
-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)