Sentry Tournament of Champions Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Just Click Vik

Sentry Tournament of Champions analysis and Daily Fantasy targets in each price range from our DFS Expert Joe Idone.
Joe Idone |
Tue, January 4, 11:25 AM EST | 6 min read
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Sentry Tournament of Champions Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Just Click Vik

Welcome to the dawn of a New Year on the PGA Tour. We joyfully return, full of excitement and dreams of buying a Tesla from a great fantasy lineup to the island of Maui that signals the start (at least in my mind) of the PGA Tour Season. We have 39 players that will be teeing it up on the Plantation Course at Kapalua, all of which were winners of an event last season. It's a no-cut style tournament with a large purse, limited field, and held on a picturesque, rolling property at a resort in Hawaii. This isn't an event to pass on unless you're Rory McIlroy of course.

Here is what we know about the golf course. It's a wide open resort-style layout that doesn't play anywhere near the 7,600 yards listed on the scorecard due to elevated tee boxes and several massive fairway slopes that gently slide your ball toward common ground and closer to the hole. This would indicate the separation will be determined by a player's aptitude to hit their approach shots tight. The greens are Bermuda-grass and gigantic. Many feature some tricky slopes that coupled with some natural player rust, eventually lead to a bunch of 3-putts. The wind is the primary defense from low scoring. At this point in the week, it doesn't appear to be much of a factor so you are going to need to make an abundance of birdies to compete.

The main stat category that I am isolating this week is SG: Approach. We have plenty of years worth of data that indicate success rates on your approach shots are most important at Kapalua. I have always been a Course-History guy and this is one of those stops on Tour that would certainly align with that narrative. Driving Distance always helps, particularly at a place where you can free-wheel the Driver and let it rip without much consequence. Finally, I'm going to factor in Birdie or Better Rates, Par 5 Scoring Average, and a little Bermuda-grass specific SG: Putting. Here is who I like this week!

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Tournament of Champions Daily Fantasy Picks

$10k+ Range: Viktor Hovland $10,000

Just click Vik. There are a number of factors that all align on the Hovland angle this week. He won the last two events he has played which should only further supplant his confidence being at an all-time high heading in 2022. We know Viktor has an affinity for coastal, resort, Bermuda-grass courses as all four of his PGA Tour victories have come on these setups. The iron play has been elite in his last 36 rounds, ranking 1st in Ball Striking and 4th in Approach. Finally, I think it's important in these small field events to find a pivot at the top in large GPP contents and I think he'll end up low owned in the $10k range.

$9k Range: Xander Schauffele $9,500

I love the stack up top with Hovland-Xander. You will hold a ton of win equity and the floor on both is also very high in this event. $9,500 is a more-than-fair price on Xander at an event where he's had 1st, 2nd, and 5th place finishes the previous three years. The strength of his game has always been his Approach play. Recently, he's been working through some kinks with the Driver, but the width of the fairways at Kapalua should give him ample room to find a landing area and take advantage of his irons.

$8k Range: Cameron Smith $8,300

Cam is my favorite play of the week and a player that I will make sure is plugged in to all of my lineups. He rated out #1 Overall in my combined stat model for the week. He's been the best putter in the field of late, has a tremendous Par 5 scoring average, and possesses the short game to get himself out of the most difficult situations. He simply just makes a ton of Birdies as well which always holds extra value in DFS. He's been the third-best player in the field in terms of BOB rates on courses with relatively easy scoring conditions.

$7k Range: Patrick Reed $7,900

Reed has always been tough to pinpoint and predict. He swerves around most stat models but despite swing changes, equipment swaps, and the occasional heckling, he has always performed well at the TOC. He lost in a playoff in 2020 and won this event back in 2015. He has the short game magic and tools to negotiate the tricky slopes on the greens. I trust his putter to propel him on a course layout that should mitigate the occasional big miss off the tee.

$6 Range: Max Homa $6,700

Homa made his debut at the TOC with a 25th place finish in 2020, but I think he arrives this week as a different player both mentally and physically. Fresh off a career year that saw him win two PGA Tour Events in a 7-month span, he's in a much more comfortable position in a field full of elite Champions. He typically makes his hay on the Par 5's which bookend both nines at Kapalua. The price presents enough upside to make him my favorite target in the $6k range.

Thanks for reading and hope to see you here all season long!

Click Here for Tournament of Champions Odds

Joe Idone's PGA Tour DFS Picks

Cuts Made: 79/90

Winners Picked: 6

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Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.

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