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Sony Open analysis and Daily Fantasy targets in each price range from our DFS Expert Joe Idone.
ANALYSIS

Sony Open Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Don't Pass on Webb Simpson

We're back for another week in paradise on the PGA Tour as we continue the Hawaii swing and shift over to the familiar Waialae Country Club for the annual Sony Open. This week however doesn't have a whole lot in common with the TOC besides general location. The return of a full field, standard cutline event held on a much shorter and constricted golf course that demands precision from Tee to Green. Waialae requires 3-less shots to pencil in an even par score vs. what we saw last week in Kapalua and will offer a more thorough examination of a player's game. We likely will see plenty of bogeys which will look quite unfamiliar based on recent events.

In regard to course setup, the fairways are not easy to hit consistently. Plenty of doglegs with risky carries often leads to many "clubbing down" as they understand the importance of playing from the short grass here. There are two par 5's on the course and it's paramount to birdie both of them if you want to post a worthy number. The wind is the primary defense once again. The course tends to reward a similar player-type if you dive into recent placings which we will look to target this week.

Folks, we are on a roll with these picks. I mentioned Cam Smith was my favorite play of the week at TOC, which came through to make it 3 consecutive DFS articles where we pegged the eventual winner. Let's see if we can keep the streak alive this week at the Sony Open.

Click Here for Complete Sony Open Odds

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Sony Open Daily Fantasy Picks

$10k+ Range: Webb Simpson $10,500

It's quite simple really. Just play Webb at Webb courses. This is without a doubt, one of those stops. Trust me, you can find ways to differentiate your lineup elsewhere. Anecdotally speaking, I played Webb at the "Webbiest" of Webb Courses at the Wyndham in 2020 at 36% ownership in a contest with 91,000+ entries. I finished in 2nd place and the lineup wasn't duplicated. There you have it, you can't convince me otherwise!

He's #1 in my stat model this week. The #1 guy last week was Cam Smith and that worked out well. Of course, there is a substantial weight on course history performance here which was able to mitigate a drop in his statistical performance last season. That said, he closed strong with back to back top 15s. I'm hopeful that he's utilized the time off to revitalize his iron play and starting his season at the familiar Sony is a prime situation for him.

$9,000 Range: Talor Gooch $9,100

I believe these types of course setups that demand accuracy and finding a way to hit a ton of Greens in Regulation are ideal for Gooch. He ranks 4th overall in the field in GIR over the last 36 rounds played to pair with a 7th overall ranking in recent Ball-striking. He won the last full field event on Tour and also competed admirably last week at the Tournament of Champions despite a lackluster performance with the putter. If we see the putting return to the norm, he's in a good position to compete and win!

$8,000 Range: Jason Kokrak $8,600

We are getting a discount on Kokrak here coming off a dead-last finish last week at the Sentry. He remains a top 20 ranked player in the world (OWGR) and I think the golf course at Kapalua was not suited well for his skillset. He's shown the ability to bounce back after a poor performance to win before, in fact, he's done it 3 times in the last 15 months. He won the CJ cup off of an MC, won the Charles Schwab after a 49th, and most recently won the Houston Open in November following a 54th place finish at the CJ Cup. I'll roll the dice and happily take the discount.

$7,000 Range: Joel Dahmen $7,600

I'm once again subscribing to the advantageous scenario of catching a player who played last week, but probably underperformed expectations. Dahmen still ranks top 20 in the field in recent Ball-Striking, Opportunities Gained, and Fairways. He caught a tough break at Kapalua when he picked up his ball thinking they were still playing preferred lines on Saturday, which ultimately led to a 2-stroke penalty. The short irons have been dialed throughout the end of last season until now.

$6,600 Range: Graeme McDowell $6,600

One of the tournaments we tend to forget and completely overlook in regards to recent form is the QBE shootout. We don't have strokes gained data which makes it tough, but I saw Graeme play really well and it was good to see him refreshed and striping it. Steve Bamford mentioned he's heard numerous rumbling from the McDowell camp that a return to form is incoming. That combined with solid course history that includes a 4th place finish in his last go-around has me confident we could see a good week from McDowell at the Sony.

Best of luck and let's nab another winner!

Click Here for Complete Sony Open Odds

Joe Idone's PGA Tour DFS Picks

Cuts Made: 84/95

Winners Picked: 7

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Article Author

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Golf

Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.

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