Farmers Insurance Open Picks: Will Xander Schauffele Turn It On at Torrey Pines?

Farmers Insurance Open Picks: Will Xander Schauffele Turn It On at Torrey Pines?

Unlike most weeks, the festivities will get started on Wednesday this week and end on Saturday to avoid conflict with the NFL’s Conference Championships on Sunday. Let’s take a closer look at the course itself and one of the most stacked fields we’ll see between now and the Masters.

Past Winners of The Farmers Insurance Open

• 2021: Patrick Reed
• 2020: Marc Leishman
• 2019: Justin Rose

Course Preview: Torrey Pines Golf Course

Torrey Pines features two courses, a North and South one that players will play one of each on Wednesday and Thursday. After the cut, the top 65 golfers will play just the South Course through the weekend. 

The North Course consistently plays easier at a par 72 and gives players a chance to go very low in order to make the cut. Length will be critical through the weekend, as the yardage comes in at 7,765, but shorter and accurate hitters will still have a chance as the South course come in with fairway accuracy being amongst the most important metrics at this course

Relevant Betting Course Metrics

• Driving Distance
• Driving Accuracy
• SG: Off-The Tee
• SG: Approach
• Small greens

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Outright Picks

Xander Schauffele (+1700) (Bet $100 to Win $1700)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

A San Diego native, Schauffele is the guy in this week’s “A-Tier” that I have my eye on to be in the fight come Saturday afternoon. While he hadn’t played well here historically, he was finally able to get the monkey off his back last year finishing T2 in this event shooting 68 and 69 on Saturday and Sunday.

In the four events he’s played this year, he’s finished T28 or higher making the cut in all four and playing some great golf along the way. While we haven’t seen him turn it “on” quite yet this season, that’s exactly what I expect in a tournament with a Major-like feel and a field with no shortage of past Major winners.

Tony Finau (+3300) (Bet $100 to Win $3300)

*Odds Available at BetMGM at Time of Publishing*

Finau is another guy that trailed only Patrick Reed in last season’s edition, finishing T2 after posting scores of 69 or lower in three of his four rounds. That result has followed a trend for him where on a course where most golfers struggle, Finau has finished T6 or higher in four of his last five events here and never higher than 25th.

Over the past five years, Finau is tied with Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, and Ryan Palmer for the most Strokes Gained: Total in this event. Above the field’s average in Driving Distance and Approach Shots 175+ yards out, Finau sets up great to go low again in this one and I think offers a ton of value at 25/1.

Taylor Gooch (+5500) (Bet $100 to Win $5500)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

Another guy that has the distance to compete and here is above average in both of the aforementioned metrics is Taylor Gooch. He also ranks well above average than the rest of the field in Driving Accuracy and SG: Putting (on Poa Greens), two more critical metrics for success here at Torrey Pines. In his four starts here at the Farmers Insurance Open, Gooch has made the cut in all three, with his best finishing being a T3 in the 2019 edition when he shot in the 60s all four days.

To start the 2022 season, Gooch ranks #2 in the FedEx Cup standings with a win in November at the RSM Classic, as well as four other T11 or higher finishes. Missing the cut last week, he should come into this event well-rested and poised to post good numbers starting Wednesday.

Farmers Insurance Open Odds

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