AT&T Pebble Beach Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Reach a Little Further
I can tell you this from extensive experience, there is no better Super Bowl appetizer than a Sunday afternoon sweat at the Waste Management Open. We have everything you could ask for. Elite field, an electric closing stretch, and all the feels of a "safe for TV" bachelor party. We arrive once again at the Phoenix Open held at TPC Scottsdale (don't ask) and the familiar Tom Weiskopf 7,200 yard layout. The majority of TPC courses share a number of commonalities. There are plenty of scoring opportunities for those willing to take on the risk/reward component which often leads to thrilling Sunday finishes where the leaderboard is rocked on the closing 9 holes.
This is one of those tournaments where Course History is a bit stickier than the norm. We have seen multiple time winners in Koepka and Matsuyama, but also a number of players who seem to consistently play very well here. The greens are typically lightning fast which I could actually make an argument may help the worse putters. There is definitely trouble for wayward misses off the tee given the amount of water hazards and desert props, but there is am importance to maintaining aggressiveness that doesn't reward those who lay back.
The hidden element that is not accountable in any stat model this week is the atmosphere. The unusual welcomed debauchery provides an environment that I believe some players thrive upon. I believe it also has something to do with the amount of back nine collapses we have seen over the years. The crowd is your friend...until you have a two stroke lead and go in the bunker on 16! The stats I have weighted most heavily in my model this week are SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Opportunities gained combined with bogey avoidance, putting on lightning fast greens, and Course History. Here are my favorite picks in each price range!
WMPO DFS Picks
$10k+ Range: Justin Thomas $11,000
To be honest, this is a tough range for me this week as I feel you could make a strong case for anyone and also believe the ownership will be pretty spread out. I mentioned the unquantifiable this week is how players react to the environment, I have no doubt Thomas will love it and feed off the crowd. He made a great Sunday charge 2 years ago and has great course history here. He also ranks #1 in my model in opportunities gained which means he's giving himself more great birdie looks than anyone else. We have seen players who struggle with the putter from time to time have success here so I am going with Thomas at the top.
$9k+ Range: Sam Burns $9,300
Confidence is at an all time high for Team Burns, and he returns to Scottsdale where he opened up last years event -10 through his first 2 days. We've been on a run where trusting the stats has worked out well given the recent wins from List and Hoge. Sam Burns is doing everything at an elite level. He also has had success at many courses I make close comps this week in TPC Craig Ranch, Summit Club, and Innisbrook.
$8k+ Range: Corey Connors $8,300
Look, if Kyle Stanley can win here, so can Corey. He does everything from Tee to Green exactly how they should be done which has been the formula for success in regard to the previous winners. He's top 5 in the field in both SG: Off the Tee and Good Drives Gained. If he is able to properly take advantage of the Par 5's, I believe he will find himself firmly in contention.
$7k+ Range: Talor Gooch $7,800
Welcome to the discount aisle. Gooch was the flavor of the fall and has now been sandwiched between HV3 and McNealy at $7,800. After a poor performance at the Amex, I actually thought he bounced back nicely at the Farmers with a top 20 where he gained 5.1 strokes on Sunday. I'm willing to overlook the inept course history and just think his ball striking ability will prevail. He's been a top 10 player in terms of SG: Approach for quite some time now.
$6k+ Range: Martin Laird $6,800
When the PGA Tour pulls into Scottsdale, you always roll out the desert fox Martin Laird. He loves himself some Waste Management Phoenix Open, and you should too. He's actually in the midst of a really solid ball striking run as well, gaining strokes on the field in every tournament played since Mid-August. Known to be a career negative putter, he's managed to be +12.2 SG: Putting at this course over the last 8 years.
Thanks once again for reading and good luck this week!
Joe Idone's PGA Tour DFS Picks
- Cuts Made: 93/110
- Winners Picked: 7