Genesis Invitational In-Tournament Picks: Expect Adam Scott to Continue His Run at Riviera

Genesis Invitational In-Tournament Picks: Expect Adam Scott to Continue His Run at Riviera

• Current Leader: Joaquin Niemann
• Round 3 Start Time: 11:48 AM
• Course: Riviera Country Club
• Purse: $12,000,000

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Genesis Invitational Predictions

We've officially reached the midway point of one of my favorite tournaments of the year, the Genesis Invitational, and after spending eight hours today on-site, I certainly have a lot to report.

There's only one place to start, and that's with Joaquin Niemann. The young Chilean opened with a blistering 63 on Thursday, including nine birdies. Riviera isn't supposed to look that easy, and yet Niemann didn't seem to get that memo. I was extremely curious to watch how Niemann would back it up on Friday, as it's always difficult to follow up a really low round. The 23-year-old teed off early this morning and silenced any doubters with an opening eagle. Niemann kept his foot on the gas and went out in 30, opening up a six-stroke lead at one point. I had the pleasure of following him on the back nine, and my biggest takeaway is that it could have been even lower, as he looked tentative with some very makeable putts on the back nine. It was clean, mistake free golf: drive the ball in play, smart shots to the center of the green, and take advantage of the birdie holes. After back-to-back 63s, Niemann sits at 16-under par through two rounds. Only six other players, Cameron Young (-14), Justin Thomas (-11), Adam Scott (-9), Jordan Spieth (-9), and Collin Morikawa (-8), are within eight strokes of him entering the weekend. Niemann can be found as high as +125 on BetMGM via the OddsChecker Golf Grid.

While Niemann completely looked the part today, this tournament is far from over. Just two weeks ago, Seamus Power held a five-stroke lead heading into the weekend. He was completely out of it by Sunday morning. Russell Henley led by five with only nine holes to play earlier this year at the Sony Open, and we know how that turned out as well. While I was extremely impressed with Niemann's play today, every single week we see a player peak too early in a golf in a tournament. I do not expect him to blow up and shoot a 75 tomorrow. Niemann will be there on Sunday, but I do think a few players can close the gap, and that the betting board is still ripe with value.

We dipped our toes last week with backing a player at single digit odds heading into the weekend, and Xander Schauffele unfortunately was not able to drain a makeable putt on the final hole that would have sent him into a playoff with Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler. Speaking of Phoenix, there were three elite players that put on a ball-striking clinic, and yet were simply unable to get the putter to cooperate.

Of Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas, conventional wisdom would suggest that one of those players would figure it out on the greens this week, and likely win this tournament. Thomas would have actually been my last choice of that bunch to solve his putting, but here we are. Through two rounds, the 14-time PGA Tour winner ranks 15th in strokes gained putting. Every other aspect of Thomas' game was traditionally firing, as he ranks second in the field in strokes gained tee to green. The putter has always been the missing piece. Thomas can be found as high as +380 at FanDuel Sportsbook via the OddsChecker golf grid. While I was extremely tempted to write up Thomas, and I actually like his chances to win more than I like Niemann's, I still felt like the number was a bit too short.

Instead, I will turn my attention to Adam Scott, who sits two strokes back of Thomas at nine-under par, yet can be found as high as 18/1 on FanDuel Sportsbook via the OddsChecker golf grid. As much as I believe in Thomas, I do not feel that he is five times more likely to win this tournament than Scott, who is always a threat at Riviera. In 13 appearances at this tournament, Scott has made 12 cuts, with nine top-25s, six top-10s, two-runner-ups, and two wins. Something about Riviera clearly suits his eye, and he is back in the mix once again contending for his third title. Scott has found himself in prime position based on a balanced attack of ball-striking and putting, and his game seems to be rounding into form following a necessary tune-up last week in Phoenix. At the tender age of 41, I still think Scott has a lot left in the tank, and I genuinely would not be surprised if he added another major in his forties. Scott has spoken frequently about how at this stage of his career there are only a few tournaments that really matter to him, and his entire schedule is centered around peaking for those weeks. Riviera is undoubtedly one of them, which completely explains why he showed up in Phoenix last week to dust off the rust. I expect Scott to be a factor come Sunday, and at 18/1, the 14-time PGA Tour winner presents the most value on the board.

While I do think that the winner will come from the group of Niemann, Young, Thomas, Scott, Spieth, and Morikawa, I had a difficult time resisting a sprinkle on Sebastian Munoz, who can be found as high as 210/1 on FanDuel Sportsbook via the OddsChecker golf grid. Munoz sits at six-under par, a full 10 strokes back of Niemann. Yet as one of the most prolific birdie makers on Tour, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Colombian can sneak up the leaderboard. While Niemann does feel miles away, there are only nine players ahead of him, so it's not as if he needs to bypass a legion of competitors. Through two rounds, Munoz ranks fifth in strokes gained off the tee, and seventh in strokes gained approach. Only Niemann and Russell Knox have struck the ball better than the former Sanderson Farms Winner. Unfortunately, Munoz has not been able to get the putter going yet. 210/1 just feels egregiously high for player who is third in this field in ball-striking and only has nine others to pass on the leaderboard. I'll gladly take my chances with Munoz and hope Niemann falters.

Genesis Invitational Predictions

• Adam Scott (+1800) FanDuel (Bet $100 to win $1,800)
• Sebastian Munoz (+21000) FanDuel (Bet $100 to win $21,000)

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