Honda Classic Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Honda Classic Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Last week was a big week for our golf handicappers. In the longshots article for the Genesis Invitational, our guy Tom Jacobs predicted Joaquin Niemann to win at +6000 and Niemann did just that.

This week, the guys try their luck for the Honda Classic. Last year, Matt Jones won at this event and is at +5000 to repeat again this year. You would have to go back to 1979 for the last time there was a repeat winner from the year prior, when Jack Nicklaus made it three consecutive.

Let's see if our staff can make it two weeks in a row with a hit. Here are our expert picks from Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Tom Jacobs, and Sam Eaton.

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Honda Classic Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Lee Westwood +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8000)

I narrowed this week’s longshot to three selections. The first was based on key stats needed to succeed at the course, and when you filter out Europeans/South Africans playing their first event at the course you come down to Chris Kirk. 

CT Pan also stood out, even more so after his solid showing at the Genesis and at this event last season. However, his approach play has been awful in the last few months, and I can’t bank on his putter getting hot again. 

Finally, I’ve come down to Lee Westwood. I bet Westwood last season at the Honda Classic at +2200. Obviously, his form is completely different, but he’s being overlooked in the market. Westwood finished T32 at the Dubai Desert Classic and T20 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship, but on both occasions, it was one round that really cost him. 

He missed the cut here last season, but recorded a T4 in 2020. Stat models will churn out players like Mito Pereira, and not many will go for Westwood. However, I’m happy to take the risk on a player almost four times the value to last year.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

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Tom Jacobs: Hudson Swafford +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10000)

After cashing with Joaquin Niemann last week at +6000, I am going to take a leap of faith and look a little but further down the board this time. His odds have dropped since I posted my early leans Monday afternoon, but I still like the value on Swafford who already has a win this season and has some hidden form here. 

He sat 11th after Round 1 and 24th after 54-holes on debut here in 2014 and in 2016, he was 5th after 36-holes before a tough weekend. Two years later, in 2018 he was 11th after 54-holes, so while his best finish remains the 21st he managed two starts ago here, he's played better golf here than his course figures suggest. 

He's hitting the ball well, and if he can have a spike week with his putter, he can certainly get in the mix here. 

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Rick Gehman: Mark Hubbard (+13000) (Bet $100 to win $13000)

Hubbard kept his game sharp last week, finishing T6 on the Korn Ferry Tour. That's his third Top 25 this season across the KFT and the PGA TOUR. Now he travels to PGA National where he finished T11 in 2020 and has made three of his last four cuts. If Hubbard can keep his ball dry this week, he can outperform his expectations and price.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

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Geoff Fienberg: Chris Kirk (+7000) (Bet $100 to win $7000)

Short course, weak field, and no poa greens strike me as a Chris Kirk sweet spot. Kirk has some fantastic results in his career in Florida but I would argue that PGA National sets up for him better than the others.

Most importantly Kirk has gained stroke off the tee in every event he's played thus far in 2022, so that alone can help us avoid the landmines off the tee and give you a chance at a weekend battle

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Andy Lack: Chris Kirk (+9000) (Bet $100 to win $9000)

Chris Kirk checks all of the boxes that I am looking for this week at the Honda Classic. He's accurate off the tee, a solid mid iron player, above-average short game, and has experienced success on Bermuda greens. He's also coming off an impressive T14 in Phoenix where he gained strokes in all four major categories. Kirk possesses a well-rounded skill-set that should keep him out of trouble on a course that tests all aspects of a player's game. I expect him to be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Palm Beach Gardens.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Joe Idone: Adam Svensson (+14000) (Bet $100 to win $14000)

The Canadian Korn Ferry Tour grad has been down in the Palm Beach County area for quite a few years now working on his game year around. He's been a prolific winner at nearly every stage of his career and this week presents a great opportunity for him to breakthrough win a PGA Tour win. He ranks top 10 in the field in terms of Driving Accuracy and Approach statistics. He's not the longest Off the Tee, but surprisingly is a terrific long iron player that rates out really well in the 150-200 proximity ranges. 140-1 is a suitable number to throw a dart at this week and he can hopefully avoid the carnage lurking around every turn at PGA National.

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)