Arnold Palmer Invitational Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Spend on Hideki Matsuyama
Arnold Palmer Invitational Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Spend on Hideki Matsuyama
Welcome to the King's Playground at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational. We have another grind through Florida with trouble lurking around every tee box. I actually think this week is a much more difficult test and examination for PGA Tour players but given the fact that it is a par 72, we typically see some lower scores than we are used to at the Honda Classic.
The rough will actually be a factor this week. It has been pretty easily manageable through the California swing and last week but will present issues this week at Bay Hill. I think there are two distinct paths you can take toward success this week that we saw play out perfectly last year with a final pairing on Sunday of Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood. It's advantageous to either be really long or really accurate. Getting stuck in the middle can present problems on both ends of the spectrum.
In terms of other stats that I am targeting when making lineups this week, I am going to put a heavy emphasis on long iron approach play and how player's fair on slippery, lightning-fast Bermuda-grass greens. The majority of the scoring will take place on the par 5's so I will look at Birdie or Better rates on those holes, which we have the full complement of this week. Finally, I'll consider how they rank in SG: OTT and also will sprinkle in some ARG stats. The ability to successfully get up and down on the occasion you miss a green in regulation will be key. Here are my favorite plays in each price range.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Picks
$10k+ Range: Hideki Matsuyama $10,300
I'm happy to go bottom-feeding in the 10k range this week which has become a familiar strategy of mine. While the course history isn't spectacular, he has made 7 consecutive cuts at this events and comes in with 2 wins over his last 6 PGA Tour starts. He's a wizard with a long iron and has been on a run of making more birdies that we typically see from Hideki. He ranks 3rd in Par 5 scoring which leads me to believe he should setup well to take advantage of the Par 5's and he has also been 3rd in SG: T2G at Bay Hill specifically.
$9k+ Range: Sungjae Im $9,900
Here is the thing about Florida golf, you have to be able to easily forgive a missed cuts. One or two bad swings throughout the first 2 days and anyone can get swallowed up by the water. That scenario played out last week with Sungjae who was the most expensive player in DFS at the Honda Classic. I'm willing to overlook last week because he is normally such a prolific ball striker and has a great history in this state overall. I love the idea of stacking him with Hideki at the top as a 1-2 punch.
$8k+ Range: Sergio Garcia $8,100
Let's get weird and play Sergio. He has not teed it up at the API since 2011, 11 years ago where he finished 8th that week. The main reason that I think he has potential is the total driving. When you combine Distance and Accuracy he is still one of the best in the game. When he gets in a groove, he's great in tough conditions and $8,100 is a price where I am certainly willing to take some chances. His elite Off the Tee game can hopefully propel him into weekend contention.
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$7k+ Range: Gary Woodland $7,800
There were a number of positive signs if you followed Gary Woodland last week at PGA National if you are willing to look past the brutal 3 putt on 18 Sunday. He's still plenty long off the tee and looks fully recovered from the hip injury that plagued him last year, ranking top 6 in the first in Driving Distance over the last 24 rounds. He's normally precise with his longer irons and I feel much more comfortable going to Woodland on a difficult setup vs. a birdie fest. He gained 6.1 on the field from Tee to Green last week and I'm betting he can continue to play well at Bay Hill.
$6k+ Range: JJ Spaun $6,500
Here is a bit of a wrinkle and guy that I'm confident I've never written up, but the incoming form for JJ Spaun is tough to ignore anymore. He's flushing his irons and has been really accurate on his drives, ranking top 10. He's gained strokes on approach in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a very nice +4.9 week at the Honda. Spaun has made the cut in 8 of his 10 tournaments, finishing top 30 in 6 of those starts. That'll do this week at $6,500.
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Thanks once again for reading and good luck this week!
Joe Idone's PGA Tour DFS Picks
- Cuts Made: 104/125
- Winners Picked: 7
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