Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational longshot picks from our stable of expert golf handicappers. Looking for a longshot PGA Tour pick this weekend? Our team has you covered.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

The longshot picks return this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With 16 of the top-30 players in the world making the trip to Bay Hill this week, our experts dug for their favorite longshot picks. This week, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, if there is a longshot out there to jump on, the chances are one of our expert golf handicappers has found them here and already backed them.

So, let's take a look at Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Andy Lack, Joe Idone, Tom Jacobs and Sam Eaton's longshot picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Longshot Picks

Rick Gehman: Patton Kizzire (+20000) (Bet $100 to Win $20000)

In five starts this calendar year, Kizzire has made the cut in four of them, highlighted by a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open. His ball-striking has been impressive, gaining at least three strokes on approach four times during that same stretch. Combine that with historically good putting numbers on bermuda and you have a recipe for a longshot who can pop!

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Sam Eaton: Cameron Young (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000)

Shocking that Luke List and Talor Gooch rank well in models coming into the Arnold Palmer, but I can’t get burnt again by these two. This narrowed it down to Lanto Griffin or Cameron Young. I definitely won’t put you off betting Griffin, but I’ve opted with Young.

This could be a step too far for Cameron Young as this course is a totally different test, however, we’ve seen debutants perform well here before. For example, Zalatoris last year, and Mitchell and Wallace both finished T6 in their debuts.

Approach shots and in particular shots over 200 yards will be key at this course. Cameron Young gained 2.7 shots on the field in approach in the last event, and 4.7 shots at the Genesis. Cameron Young’s game is in a great place, will this be one step too far? Maybe, however, I’m happy to jump on board at +8000.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

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Tom Jacobs: Sebastian Munoz (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $10000)

I have peppered the 40, 50/1 range this week at Bay Hill, and generally expect the winner to come from there, however, I think there's some value in backing Munoz at a big price. Munoz opened with a 68 here to sit two back after day one last year, and while he didn't keep it going on the week, it helped him to a T49 finish which was an improvement on his missed cut on debut. 

The Colombian has ranked inside the top-5 in SG Tee-to-Green in three of his past five starts and that should serve him well at this event. He's trending nicely at the moment with finishes of 39-23-21 in his last three starts and played well most of the week at Riviera. 

I will also back him in the First Round Leader market at a similar price, in case he gets off to another fast start and fades, but when looking at longshots, I think it's best to look at those striking the ball as well as Munoz is, as we saw it served Sepp Straka well last week at the Honda.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Geoff Fienberg: Thomas Pieters (+13000) (Bet $100 to Win $13000)

A perfect example of how helpful the Oddschecker betting grids can be is on display with my selection on Pieters +13000 as a large consortium of books have him under +10000 and as low as +7500. Pieters possesses a tee-to-green game that can both overpower and be elite. Many have written off Pieters because he let them down at Rivieria (myself included) but I'm not giving up on an easier field and bigger number despite lacking the course history he carried around Riviera. In order to bet on someone in this range you do have to have a deep belief in the player and his ceiling, since I believe in the ceiling and what's in store for his near future, this was an easy bet for me to submit.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Joe Idone: Danny Willett (+25000) (Bet $100 to Win $25000)

We saw some positive signs to lean on with Willett last week at the Honda Classic where he gained over 3 strokes with his irons but ultimately the putter kept him from making a run. If you're going to throw a few "hard-earns" on a player 200/1, you have to believe they can handle the pressure and win if given the opportunity to strike. Danny has won at The Masters, Wentworth, and most recently the Alfred Dunhill in October. He moved to Florida two years ago to be closer to world renowned swing instructor Sean Foley, and I believe it's only a matter of time until we see the hard work pay off on the PGA Tour. The tougher this tournament plays, the more I believe it could fall into the lap of Danny Willett just like it did at Augusta a few years ago.

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Andy Lack: Billy Horschel (+5500) (Bet $100 to Win $5500)

I have to say, I'm really surprised about the outpouring of support for Horschel last week, yet how little I've heard about him this week. The six-time PGA Tour winner gained 9.3 strokes ball-striking last week, good for his best ball-striking performance in three and a half years. Unfortunately, he only finished 16th because he couldn't buy a putt. Based on his long-term splits, I'm confident we see some positive regression with Horschel's putter.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

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Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.


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