PLAYERS Championship Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

PLAYERS Championship longshot picks and predictions from our stable of golf handicappers at OddsChecker. Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Andy Lack, Tom Jacobs and Sam Eaton give their favorite PLAYER Championship longshot pick.
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PLAYERS Championship Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Golf's unofficial fifth major is here and so are our staff's longshot picks for this massive event at TPC Sawgrass. Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Andy Lack, Tom Jacobs and Sam Eaton all give us their favorite PLAYERS Championship pick that comes into the week with long odds.

TPS Sawgrass presents interesting challenges to golfers, as well as one of the most iconic holes on Tour at No. 17. Which golfers will have the toughest times with this challenge? Will we get a longshot winner? Let's find out now.

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PLAYERS Championship Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Corey Conners @ +6000 (Bet $100 to win $6,000)

The longshot pick is a little trickier at the Players Championship as there are plenty of names that you wouldn’t normally find over the 50/1 mark. For example, Oosthuizen at 60/1 is almost a must-bet, and same could be said for Nieman. The stat model throws out names like Conners, Gooch and Henley due to their approach play and fairway finding.

Conners is the one I’m ending with. He finished 7th at the PLAYERS last season, in the last year he ranks 2nd in terms of shots gained ball striking, 6th shots gained T2G, 7th fairways gained and 12th in approach.

With rain about, hitting fairways is likely to be more important. He might have less win equity than a few players around that mark, but with weather around, he’s worth chancing.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Joe Idone: Tony Finau @ +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8,000)

It feels like forever since we've seen Sunday-contention Tony Finau. That said, I think this week should present a great opportunity for him to get back on track. He had a really solid performance at the Genesis, gaining over 6 strokes on approach that week. It appears we could be in store for some nasty weather in Ponte Vedra Beach this week that I actually think could benefit Finau in this instance. He's typically a great long-iron player and when I look at previous winners of The PLAYERS the last couple of years, they would indicate success for players that are normally below average or shaky with the Putter. Tony actually had one of the top 5 Putting Performances of his career at TPC Sawgrass a few years ago which further would illustrate that point. The last time we saw him drift into this range, he peaked and won at Liberty National. I think we could see another spike this week at The PLAYERS.

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Andy Lack: Alex Noren @ +13000 (Bet $100 to win $13,000)

 I rode with Alex Noren just a few weeks ago at the Honda Classic, and I see no reason to hop off after he gained  6.9 strokes ball-striking. I love Noren on shorter, positional golf courses. He's been solid at Innisbrook and Harbour Town, and the last time he got a crack at these over-seeded Bermuda greens, he gained over 6 strokes putting in Phoenix. Similar to how I felt about Billy Horschel last week, we are in a spot with Noren where the ball-striking is really clicking, and it's only a matter of time before the putter comes along too.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Tom Jacobs: Brian Harman @ +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15,000)

The temptation would be to take one of my favorites in the outright market this week, in Shane Lowry as he still sits there at 50/1, but let's get wild.

There's only one player that has finished inside the top-10 in each of the last two renewals of this event, and that is Brian Harman.

His lead-in form (3rd at the Amex and 14th in Phoenix) is better than it was in both 2019 and 2021, so maybe he can eclipse or at least match the 8th and 3rd place finishes over the past two starts here.

It is hard to see anyone in triple-digits winning this event, but he has as good a chance as any in this range, and with three top-8's on this course and four top-8's at the Travelers, to go alongside that 3rd at the Amex earlier this year, Harman is clearly a bit of a specialist on Pete Dye designs.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Rick Gehman: Beau Hossler @ +25000 (Bet $100 to win $25,000)

Hossler enters the week with (2) straight Top 20 finishes at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational. Going back even further, he's gaining 1.01 strokes per round over his last 20 rounds -- the 33rd best mark in this field. When you combine that with his price and historic dominance of the Par 5s at TPC Sawgrass, you have a recipe for a viable longshot.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

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Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.

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Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.

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Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.

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Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-host the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on the tours on both sides of the pond. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, but his main passion remains golf, and every year he holds onto the hope of Lee Westwood winning his first major championship.

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