The Valspar Championship Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Take Advantage of Xander Schauffele at the Top
The Valspar Championship Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Take Advantage of Xander Schauffele at the Top
We've made our way to the final destination on the grueling Florida swing as the PGA Tour pulls into Palm Harbor, FL for the familiar Valspar Championship held annually at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. Once again we have a difficult and demanding examination on tap for players. That said, this course present a different type of difficulty. Whereas the last 3 events were primarily about avoiding water and landmines, the Copperhead course is going to require elite ballstriking and consistency in order to succeed.
The par 71 layout features 5 par 3's that are all between 195-235 yards. That combination coupled with numerous par 4's where players take less than driver off the tee, will lead to a ton of long iron shots. The is a positional golf course with narrow fairways that requires full attention through 18 holes and often times...patience. The closing 3 hole stretch, known as the infamous Snake Pit, is as tough as any we will see all year.
Some key metrics that I am focusing on this week will be recent ballstriking and approach numbers. I am placing very little and almost zero emphasis on Off The Tee stats this week which is unusual. I am really going to hone in on the strokes gained on approach shots from 175-225 yards. Putting and short game has proven to be pivotal throughout the Florida swing and I expect that to continue here as well. Finally, let's sprinkle in some Course History as we have seen guys repeat success here, notable Paul Casey who won back-to-back trophies in 2019, 2018. Here are my favorite plays in every range this week.
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Valspar Championship DFS Picks
$10k+ Range: Xander Schauffele $10,300
If all things were equal in this range, I would lean Morikawa or Thomas. But we know they aren't and taking the discount in terms of price and ownership on Xander could pay off big this week. I'm willing to totally rule out last week's numbers, but his two previous starts saw a return of the irons, gaining 3.2 on APP at the Genesis and 4.2 in Phoenix. I think he is most certainly lowest owned in this range and has a ton of upside this week.
$9k Range: Abe Ancer $9,300
If this course were only slightly shorter, it would be tailor fit for Ancer's game. That said, he's still shown success here in the past with a 2nd, 8th, and 13th place finish in his last 3 starts here. I think this course shares a lot of commonalities with TPC Southwind and Harbor Town where we've obviously seen him excel as well. He has the ability to shape his shots and should be rewarded on this type of golf course as he ranks 6th in SG: Total at the Valspar Championship.
$8k Range: Gary Woodland $8,500
Woodland has been tremendous thus far during the Florida swing. I suspect he feels this swing presents him a great opportunity to nab another career win which is the reason we have seen him every week. Back-to-back 5th place finishes at the Honda Classic and API would indicate he's very close! He also ranks 6th in SG: Ballstriking specifically at the Copperhead Course over his career and has been putting it great on this Florida Tifeagle Bermuda blend.
$7k Range: Doc Redman $7,400
How about Doc? Despite a somewhat disappointing finish last Sunday where he flushed a couple hundred thousand into the water at TPC Sawgrass, he was still very solid OTT and with his ballstriking. He's finished 33rd or better in 3 of his last 5 starts and I think we are in store for a top 20 this week. This are really trending back positively with his irons and this course in particular demands that skillset.
$6k Range: Vaughn Taylor $6,700
Boy does it get ugly fast in this range and I can't believe I'm clicking Vaughn's name...but here we are! He rated out inside the top 20 in the proximity ranges I have selected for approach shots, and also in par 5 scoring from 550-600 yards (all four par 5's are within this range). Lastly, a couple solid finishes the last 2 years put me over the top as he finished 6th last year and 18th in 2019.
Joe Idone's PGA Tour DFS Picks
- Cuts Made: 113/135
- Winners Picked: 7