Valspar Championship Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Valspar Championship Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Everyone's favorite weekly picks piece is back as the OddsChecker stable of golf experts and handicappers give us their favorite longshot picks for the Valspar Championship this weekend. The Florida circuit is coming to a close, do our guys have another longshot winner in them before the Tour leaves the Sunshine State?

Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Andy Lack, Tom Jacobs and Sam Eaton each give us a breakdown of their favorite longshot pick for this week's Valspar Championship. Make sure you tail these plays if you plan on hitting the big one this weekend.

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Valspar Championship Longshot Picks

Rick Gehman: Adam Hadwin @ +6600 (Bet $100 to win $6,600)

Hadwin has found a resurgence in his approach play this year. He's gained strokes in five of six events in that category. Solid approach play unlocks everything else at the Copperhead Course, which Hadwin knows -- he won this event in 2017.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Sam Eaton: Alex Noren @ +7000 (Bet $100 to win $7,000)

Alex Noren is not one I bet easily, but I can’t afford to miss him at the Valspar Championship. Noren’s game is trending in the right direction for once.

He’s gained over five shots in approach in the last two events he’s played, which will be crucial at the Valspar. He’s also been pretty handy with the driver, gaining shots on the field at the Players and Honda.

In the last three months he ranks 4th in this field in terms of SG: Approach, 11th in terms of ball striking, 10th in terms of Good Drives Gained and 3rd in P4’s 450-500. He finished 21st here last year, dropping shots off the tee and in approach. However, he was hot with the putter which is promising given all of above.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Geoff Fienberg: Harold Varner III @ +7500 (Bet $100 to win $7,500)

A recent win in Saudi, and showing some excellent form around Sawgrass last week have my eyes still pointed towards Varner. Feels like a perfect event for him, as his ability to create birdie opportunities seemed higher than anyone's last week and Valspar is a course in which struggling putters have found winners circle. Varner gained strokes in each category last week and I'm confident his current form and historical winning score at Innisbrook are a perfect match.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Tom Jacobs: Mathias Schwab @ +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)

Schwab has been a perennial contender at the DP World Tour level in recent year, but has yet to get a win. With that said, he's playing some great golf right now, having settled into PGA Tour life quickly, making his last five-straight cuts, after missing the weekend on his season debut on the number.

Schwab has finished T7 in his past two starts, at the Honda, and in Puerto Rico, and will be well-rested after avoiding the struggles at Bay Hill and the PLAYERS.

He opened with a round of 67 and closed with a 68 in a tough week of scoring at the Honda, and his second-round 66 in Puerto Rico showed his scoring capability once again. 

When finishing 2nd on the DP World Tour, he has lost in a playoff to Tyrrell Hatton, in an event he probably should have dispatched earlier, and on the other occasion, shot a Sunday 66 at the Porsche European Open to fall one shy of Paul Casey's winning score. That it two elite talents at the European level, that he has lost out to, and his top-4 finish at the 2019 WGC Champions suggests the field strength is not an issue this week, and he should enjoy this technical layout.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Joe Idone: Joel Dahmen @ +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15,000)

It's fairly simple for me this week, Dahmen is just a much better player than those priced around him in the 150-1 range. He has six top 5 finishes and a win on his resume over the last 3 years.

Any course that is going to demand ballstriking and iron play is a course that should suit Joel Dahmen well. In my stat model, he ranked top 20 in both approach and ballstriking over the last 36 rounds played. He hits a good portion of fairways which is a positive sign given they are only about 24 yards wide on average which is well below PGA Tour average. I think you are getting a good bit of upside for a potential Sunday sweat with Dahmen at 150-1 this week!

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)