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WGC-Dell Match Play longshot picks and predictions from our golf experts at OddsChecker. If you're looking to sprinkle some money on a longshot, we have you covered.

WGC-Dell Match Play Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

March is a fantastic time of year with the NCAA's March Madness taking over the sports world. Golf has gotten in on the fun as well with WGC-Dell Match Play which sees the top-64 golfers in the world compete in a tournament-style event.

For this article, we'll be looking at our staff's longshot picks for the event and see if we can win you some cash for WGC-Dell Match Play

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WGC-Dell Match Play Longshot Picks

Andy Lack: Marc Leishman @ +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8000)

There's a lot to like about the big Australian here. I'm not going to read too deeply into a missed cut at the Players, as he caught the wrong side of the draw. Leishman has reached the knockout stage twice at this event, and he's experienced success at TPC River Highlands as well, another short and positional Pete Dye course. Leishman has shown he can take down big fields before, and I'm expecting a strong performance.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Geoff Fienberg: Thomas Pieters @ +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10000)

Having not shown as much life in his early US results in 2022, I will continue to look for Pieters to shine thru. This may be a little deep in the odds for a WGC (despite Billy Ho winning last year at 90/1) but each year we've seen some European/International barnstorm this event on route to a final four finish. I simply love the pod he drew, Billy Ho, Tom Hoge, and Min Woo Lee. I expect Hoge to also be a popular long shot fancy this week because of the pods lack of strength but I'm going to Pieters.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Rick Gehman: Alex Noren @ +6000 (Bet $100 to win $6000)

Noren will need to escape from a tough Group 10 against Louis Oosthuizen, Paul Casey and Corey Conners -- but he's certainly well equipped to pull it off. He's been on fire in 2022, racking up multiple Top 12 finishes and earning tangible gains with his approach play. Now he puts his 12-3 match play record on the line this week, with plenty of confidence.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

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Tom Jacobs: Kevin Kisner @ +6600 (Bet $100 to win $6600)

Kevin Kisner is the undisputed king of Austin Country Club, boasting an unrivaled record of 16-6-1 at this event and golf course. I understand that people will think his run will have to end here soon, and he's got to emerge from a tough group of Justin Thomas, Luke List and Marc Leishman, but he's not scared of anyone. 

He's a winner and a runner-up here, and he's been playing well at events you wouldn't necessarily expect him to do so, like the PLAYERS (fourth) and the Tournament of Champions (T8) in recent times. Add those two finishes to his third at the Sony Open and that's three top-8 finishes in seven starts in 2022, and he now returns to an event he clearly relishes. 

It feels trappy, and you would expect him to struggle at some point, but until we move away from this golf course, I think Kisner should be considered every year in this format. 

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Joe Idone: Tom Hoge @ +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8000)

Local Texas narratives aside, the guy is just playing some really great golf at the moment. Given this is a shorter layout and there are many of those distinctive slopes and tend to gather balls downhill into close range with the green, this should set up nicely for his game. Hoge has been one of the better "wedge" players on the PGA Tour this season and I think he got a favorable draw in terms of his potential path to the final four. 

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Sam Eaton: Max Homa @ +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5000)

Not a massive fan of this event, but it can spring a few surprises as the last two versions have shown. 

Max Homa looks a pretty handy bet at this price, his group (DJ, Hughes and Wolff) doesn’t look the most difficult, and he’s likely to face Bryson in the next round. It’s not only his passage through the competition which encourages me, but he’s well suited to this course. 

He finished T18 here last year, and comes in with key stats trending in the right direction. He’s gained over four shots in approach in his last two events, to be let down by the putter. Even though he’s lost strokes in March with the putter, he’s still averaging one shot gained with the flatstick in his last five events. 

If he gets the putter hot he’s got every chance this week.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Article Authors


Known for his vast knowledge and entertaining approach to talking golf, has a documented record picking outright winners on the award winning podcast "The Pat Mayo Experience".


Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.


Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.


Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!


Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.


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